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Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey on whether Israel will take military action against Iran.
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-- we're gonna move ahead and as you can see we're keeping a close watch on the tension in the mideast right now and the big question on everybody's mind is will Israel go to war with Iran and what would that mean for the global price of oil.
At this point -- wanna bring in one of the world's leading experts on the mideast James.
Pass -- -- to both Turkey and Iraq.
He's also visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy thank you for joining us I think the key questions here on everybody's mind at this point.
Do you think and if yes will Israel attack.
Iran why.
Well.
There is a very significant likelihood is that Israel will take military action.
In the months ahead.
Because -- believes that.
Absent such action -- rain will move to a point where Israeli military.
Attacks -- no longer be effective in stopping Iran from developing a nuclear option or -- nuclear capability.
And therefore as Israel feels that its -- financial.
Right to survival is at stake they -- -- very seriously consider taking -- Should I think you know I've read reports which say that the Israelis want to keep Iran from weaponized saying they're enrich uranium now there's this UN report that has -- has doubled the number of uranium.
In Richmond machines in and underground bunker does this force the US hand if Israel does attack had a we respond.
The out -- -- and -- -- -- Iranian actions as reported just this week by the international atomic energy agency UN now -- are very very troubling.
Nonetheless they have not moved yet to the threshold -- President Obama laid down far acting to ensure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon.
Capability that is are Rand has not cross that threshold yet.
The question that everybody is looking -- is does Israel have -- -- more near term.
Threshold.
So do you think that if Israel does attack it comes before the US election and if this does happen.
Has the markets priced in this attack in the price of -- or will we see astronomical prices for oil.
First of all it's very difficult to determine.
In the end whether Israel attack what kind of an attack that would be.
How much of -- homage chaos that would create in the Middle East stand when it would do so it could be before could be after November there -- military issues -- political issues at stake.
But in terms of the impact on non global markets.
As you reported today prices are up there are a variety of fact is.
That a contributing to that there are sanctions on Iran but we have found other countries that are able to.
Pick up the slack.
An increase our production so that's not the primary reason.
But where the straits of almost to be cut of course.
That would are reduced to zero approximately 20% of our world oil imports however.
General Dempsey the chairman of the joint chiefs.
Have stated publicly that dollar Rand could shut the straits.
The US military is capable opening again and we just heard from Melissa that the people on the scene -- very confident that they could do so.
All right well.
We have run out of time is but it would appreciate you joining us that was -- James Jeffrey former US ambassador to Iraq.
An expert on the Middle East -- -- we're going to be watching the situation very closely I know have you back on the program we appreciate your giving us and -- this evening.
Thank you.
