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Jordan the company from Chicago is Brian -- chief economist with us trust advises his life characterization of the economy price if you agree.
-- bumping along a bottom.
We're in very low via.
Would not -- -- us but we're in very low -- very little growth and it's not going proved much for the rest of this year what do you say.
-- it sounds like you're -- translating what we've been saying now for the last six months started to plow.
Economy it's not a resource economy it ain't gonna win the Belmont.
It ain't gonna win the preakness but it ain't gonna keel over and die either and there's lots of people that think.
Just because it's going -- -- you know slow.
Means it's about to fall over it's really fragile it -- and -- and I don't buy that it we're just growing -- another way to say this.
Is that this horrors that this economy.
Is having to poll.
One of the biggest governments.
In fact the biggest government.
The United States has ever had outside of that's interest -- -- -- did are you saying -- that politics will make a difference to the economist performance as you look into the future.
-- -- -- at this election crucial for them the performance of the economy not the markets the economy got.
Yet it's crucial for both Stewart the economy and the markets I mean.
If we go back to the 1970s.
You know it's really easy to see the government was growing.
From the mid sixties through though the late seventies and early eighties and and as that government -- the economy had more and more trouble higher unemployment more recessions the stock market didn't go anywhere for seventeen years and then.
Ronald Reagan and believe it or not even Bill Clinton.
Presided over decline in the size of government relative to our economy and the stock market in the economy -- I mean there was one month in 1983.
After tax cuts after spending cuts where we created one point one million jobs in one month.
Tom and so I I believe that if we were to go back to those eighty's and ninety's policies where we shrunk government -- tax rates low.
Tightened monetary policy we would have a much better economy and -- market in the future so let.
Let's have two scenarios here.
Romney wins and the Republicans win the senate Republican sweep.
He gets tax reform he gets a long -- handle on entitlements.
Do we get 456%.
Growth in the economy in him in various quarters after that all scenario number two.
President Obama gets a second time the senate stays with a slim democratic majority we get tax increases and we get some cuts in Medicare going full it.
What's the result in terms of economic growth next year given those two scenarios.
Sure I think right now the economy is being held back by uncertainty and the weight of the economy so so getting rid of that uncertainty will help us right away.
And then number two by shrinking the size of government the burden that the plow horse has to carry.
We're gonna see growth accelerate I don't know about five or 6% growth.
But -- clearly we can get up to 4% growth.
Next year if we were to raise tax rates next year.
And continue to grow the economy we're gonna be the plow -- at past at best 2% growth 8% unemployment.
Just to remind everybody France.
For the last forty years 2% real growth on average.
Eight point 1% unemployment if you look at the United States today.
We are all ready France that's what we art -- were slow growing.
We're we have high unemployment and that will continue for ever and if if we don't shrink the size of this government that -- Brian west brick -- -- to be compared to friends really really is that you did it does it it's terrible that I've brought I'm sorry I'm out of time.
But thanks very much for being with us today very interesting analysis and analogy we appreciate it thanks fine thank you -- we -- --
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