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Nomura Securities senior U.S. economist Ellen Zentner gives her outlook for the Fed and Jackson Hole.
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Well -- slightly stronger GDP data out today in my next -- things conditions are favorable for growth in the second half of the year joining me now.
To talk about this some more -- -- and looking at that GDP data some more and outlook for -- while we should expect from the Federal Reserve.
And obviously what we're seeing in Jackson -- the symposium coming up.
I wanted to talk with Alan -- and numerous security seeing here.
US economy the UUS economist Alan I'm so happy to speak with you today you feel like the news has been a little more favorable.
And economic news that is and how do you think that may or may not.
Play out for Jackson Hole later in the week.
Well you -- a lot.
The data points we've been getting have suggested that the economy.
Is stable and not falling off a cliff let's say.
And that today's GDP report showing an upper division for the second quarter was also positive news.
Now what how that has bearing on fed policy.
We still have an economy that's growing at 2% or less that means the Fed is still failing on one of its mandates.
To have to healthy growth in the economy that promotes a lower stable unemployment rate or full employment and we're just not getting that yet.
So today's day wallet builds on the better data -- -- is still nothing more than -- of an economy that's moving about sideways.
Now for Jackson Hole.
Of course everyone will be busy watching the markets on Friday would normally we'd rather be concentrating on a nice holiday weekend so we have Bernanke to thank for that.
But typically this is not the time.
Win the Fed Chairman would signal changes in policy historically Jackson Hole summit has always been an academic.
-- Anna and -- academic gathering up now on 2010.
He didn't signal an upcoming change in policy two months after that are two FOMC meetings after.
That meeting we -- a change in monetary policy I think that's now led to these.
It expectations that may be inflated for some kind of signal at Jackson Hole -- zero point handing over of some good or wondering whether historically this would be the right time.
To do just that and make a move or at least to imply even more so that something was coming and you're saying you think it's not likely to -- to see that later this week so.
Whether it's seasonal or historical.
What do you think what are your -- your predictions I mean there's no doubt that the news -- even getting -- is a little better than it was but it's not as back.
-- as it was but it still terrible -- 8% on all over 8% unemployment since February of 09.
What you know one point 7% GDP growth.
Is pathetic so what are some of your outlook if you were to give me 123 what do you think -- -- terrible -- pretty -- I think at best more of same an economy that moves sideways around that anemic 2% growth rate we're just facing too many head -- especially coming up at the end of the year.
As congress wrangles over how to bridge the fiscal cliff the uncertainty that's gonna that's gonna cause for businesses consumers and investors -- is going to be very difficult.
Or I don't see where the -- is for a huge pick up -- acceleration in the recovery.
And so I think that we're saddled with this anemic growth rate for quite some time we're still trying to repair.
Household balance sheets now the government has got to get its household balance sheet on its balance sheet in order.
And so we sort of shifted from that private sector deleveraging to the public sector deleveraging that typically will hold back and a economic growth for years -- -- Allen -- there have been no more you're in the US senior economist there thank you so much for your insight.
Right we are facing a lot of headwinds in -- and if you want more --
