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S&P Capital IQ chief equity strategist Sam Stovall argues better economic numbers could give Fed chief Ben Bernanke a reason to hold off on QE3.
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Eight by GOP its GDP came out actually this morning and for the second quarter revised upward of one point 7%.
What will this mean for stocks in September and the election Sam -- those here to tell us.
How to get through the possible dog days ahead Sam that one point 7% revised up from one point 542.
Quarter GDP growth.
You actually think it reduces chances the Fed will come up with some looser policy -- to stoke the economy.
Yes Dennis I think that's right or at least delay it a little bit some people are hoping that Fed Chairman Bernanke will make some favorable comments.
When he speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
Our belief is that if they're gonna do anything that would probably do it after the mid September FOMC meeting -- all -- -- their members have to come out with their forecasts for 2013.
And there's a press conference already set up.
But you know we had those better numbers GDP today also -- better than expected S&P Case Shiller Index numbers come out earlier in the week so.
-- unless they're they are convinced that we are.
You know slipping once again we think there's a possibility they might hold off.
Now at the same time though there -- the new report out today shows that inflation is running at only one point 7%.
And that low low inflation gives the Fed more room to maneuver did in the minutes in the most recent fed meeting kind of show that more members were in favor of acting sooner not later.
You're absolutely right they'd switch the word some members too many members.
But also you have to remember that that was something that was out about a month ago.
So in -- sense that statement was relatively stale.
As compared now that we've had all of these other economic data come out that it was a little bit better than expected so.
I think the Fed wants to also wait until next Friday.
When they get the August payroll reports if we end up with a number that was surprisingly strong similar to.
The July payroll numbers then again there might be additional pause for the Fed to wait and see.
Yet now October's the month of meltdowns we all remember the 87 -- rolled up.
But you talk about how September is the worst month for stocks my -- since 1945.
Stocks have fallen an average of zero point 6%.
-- of for all September's why is that and will that hold -- next month.
Well we've had negative results going back to 199019704529.
19100.
Maybe it's because investors are trying to get out early get out before.
The meltdowns that they remember from 87 and October that they read about in October of 1929.
So -- like car companies putting -- their cars early investors getting out of stocks early.
So there's certainly a possibility we have an awful lot of headwinds out there.
No pun intended with Isaak but rather just concerns about US data.
Concerns about the conventions and -- Presidential elections coming up worries about what's going on in Europe -- whether they will be able to write we don't put forward all of the things that'll help resolve their crisis.
It's okay and could be even more to sell off of it looks like -- bonds and went business might want the other guy thank you so much.
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