You're watching...
Bianco Research president James Bianco breaks down major events in the next three weeks that will determine the outcome of the election.
Also in this playlist...
Auto-advance: ON
Auto-advance
This transcript is automatically generated
Thanks sandy Santa.
Well -- just a little over two months until the 2012 presidential election.
Well our next guest thinks that the Helen is the winner will be determined within the next three weeks joining us today.
Read more on what outside factors are influencing voters as Jim Bianco president of Bianco research Jim Bianco.
You cover so much I know you do a lot of commentaries on money flow and also on investing in what you think that.
-- the elections -- every -- -- in sooner than later why.
You've got a bunch of stuff coming together between now and say the middle of September you've got the two.
Presidential conventions in history shows that you usually get big movements in the polls.
Coming out of the conventions almost as much as you do off of the debates.
You've also got the ECB making a decision the German court making a decision you've got the Fed.
Not only with Jackson -- this Friday.
But then meeting on September 12 September 13 to get a new iPhone coming out on September 12 when -- when you add it all up.
By the fifteenth of September the conventions of the over -- -- a better idea is gonna win the convention.
We're gonna have the Fed behind us we'll know whether or not QE3 will happen or not.
-- the ECB behind us know what the bond purchases are -- it all up and I think the markets will be ready to discount the -- outcome of the election and where the markets are gonna go for the rest of the year.
Didn't want to comment that you made -- recently was that you see the markets that are showing that the markets are showing a slight edge right now for President Obama why do you think that it's.
You know if you look at I am a big fan a look at the daily -- -- betting markets.
And right now Obama's got -- probably about a 55% chance 56% chance of winning the election he's above.
Fifteen now historically.
Those numbers change right around the convention now.
Obama could go to 75 you go to 45 over the next two or three weeks.
And so he is the incumbent he is it -- bad and it advantage right now he is leading but not by much and it wouldn't take much to change -- as we move forward.
And by the same -- you you noted just that which is that any major.
Sell off -- any major movements in anything for that matter for the economy or whatever could have.
Negative implications for this administration right now right like won't be some examples of that.
Well one of the things that we found -- looking at the daily tracking poll of Obama.
Is if you could if you don't see one just look at the S&P 500 he trades up and down -- he moves his tracking poll up -- down with the trading of the S&P 500.
And so we've referred to him as a risk on asset that he goes up and down with the market so.
Anything that would happen say QE3.
ECB bond purchase that would push equity prices higher through the -- would probably benefit of anything that could happen say hurricane -- sick or no QE3 that would hurt stock prices it it would hurt his outfit election chances as well tell.
And did not go we aren't too much time left but your thoughts and -- briefly mentioned at the top.
Talking about QE3 you think that is likely right.
Yeah what what the Fed should -- it.
Yeah you what the Fed should do what they will do what they will do I think it's QE3 in the form of a mortgage purchase program but at least half a trillion dollars -- don't agree with that but I think that's what they'll do.
And because we talked about that there were multiple options how they would actually execute that -- do that are right Jim Bianco of Jim Bianco research.
We appreciate it.
