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-- Bible my next guess is keeping an eye on three big things you need to be watching in the market right now and he's got ways you can make money off of them David -- sids Stiefel -- is managing director.
David thank you so much for joining us.
OK I especially.
You are watching three big things one of the three big things you'll watching.
Well I'll start with what -- you know you're just covering at the -- your show and that is hurricane eyes that tropical storm Isaac you know a lot of parallels being drawn to Katrina right now.
Where Katrina we had a lot of production and oil drop in the -- from Mexico Nat gas production came across.
And all of course we had a lot of refineries going off line.
And what the Richmond refinery downtown San Francisco got headlines this weekend that we have a refinery -- in Venezuela one over in Asia so now there's a lot of capacity being taken offline actually.
So ironically in spite of all this were saying some heavy selling in the crude oil complex today and -- centres around the chatter.
That we could get an SPR release and if we get an SPR release obviously that's gonna be negative for oil prices.
We have a lot of options traders starting to bid up oil's volatility -- mix.
Towards one month highs -- they're trying to -- some protection.
And no matter what we do though from the SP aren't I think his name is -- at the top your show you nail right on the head.
It's gasoline prices that are to remain elevated because we don't have the refinery capacity and we do have a glut of oil.
Here in the states.
So if you think gasoline is gonna outperform crude oil even in and asked PR release you know what you -- probably be short oil and that's US so -- -- oil ETF.
And possibly long gasoline that's huge EA that's -- US -- gasoline fund.
Because even in and asked PR release gasoline should relatively outperform the drill down and oil could elect capacity is offline actually that's a good point is -- about Europe quickly do you expect the easy to agree to.
You know -- to get some backbone against the Bundesbank -- go ahead with its bond buying program.
Well -- but -- -- you know what even know we have ECB president speaking this Saturday at Jackson Hole and then of course we have the ECB meeting next week trainers are not anticipating.
Any relative action coming from these guys it all revolves around one date at this point -- at September 12 that's what we get the German Constitutional Court ruling when expanding the -- -- powers to do some bond buying and it's also we get the elections.
You know from the dots and you -- right now one of the leading candidates is against expanding any thing as far as helping Greece out or any of the periphery.
So as traders are starting to embrace us coming to an end zone of remember the market does not like uncertainty -- love straight you know transparency and certainly in -- market.
We're starting take our cues from the EU financials that you financials have rallied the four month highs and they just closed over their 200 day moving average if they can get any kind of momentum off -- -- EU banking ETF which is the EU Afghan.
Really could have some room in the run before it hits relative pies cow bell what were -- Douglas -- -- -- -- that -- donated how can you mentioned that ETF but.
What would you suggest to investors at this stage how they play this market -- So much uncertainty still out there.
Well I'll tell you everything seems be revolved around QB Ashley and my big concern is that -- is gonna disappoint on Friday because you know he's got inflation metrics a lot higher than they were last year when he was at Jackson Hole he's got policy against him because both candidate Romney and the president or do not really wanna see QE going.
And he also has a slight pick up an economic data despite what's going on in Europe and China so what I think it absolutely happened -- the biggest set up for disappointment in not getting some more dovish -- QE language from -- is going to be in the treasury market DI EF which has a ten year ETF.
To get absolutely hit a one that's now a lot of people would -- like well wait a minute.
QB's gonna be negative for the stock markets -- -- Q we'll be negative for the stock market but you know what I think treasuries have really built up the anticipation over the last week and a half for more QE if it doesn't happen you're gonna have a lot of money fleeing the treasury market that's gonna go right and the stocks.
And when you see the dollar going very -- -- The Euro gain some non momentum heading back up but is still little wishy washy if you like.
Yeah absolutely what you know what actually I think it's a dollar's gonna end up breaking further north.
Because if we don't get QE here in the states that's dollar positive yeah and everybody is anticipating the ECB having a ramp up the printing -- having to cut rates.
And bring things down that's gonna be Euro negative and at the end of the day.
I think a lot of the G-7 bankers -- -- see the Euro a lot lower just because it's gonna help every inflate their economy it's gonna -- the German Bundesbank the confidence -- -- that -- exports are gonna continue to grow when they're gonna be able to re inflate their way out of this through their export machine so I think the euros that could end -- lower on the year.
Dollar could end up towards year to date if not higher highs.
Excellent stuff move.
I wish I -- -- energy right now David gloves and Aladdin knowledge is confirmed -- managing director David thank you very much really -- inside actually per.
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