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Winning the Swing Vote

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    Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports with his latest polling on swing-state voters.

  • Duration 2:45
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If Mitt Romney wants to win in November.

Gonna have to win the swing states and according to the latest tracking poll he has some work to do Scott Rasmussen from Rasmussen Reports in New Jersey.

Scott what's the result of the tracking poll of swing states.

In the eleven key swing states -- we're following right now President Obama is up four points gotta keep us some perspective those Stewart he won -- states by seven the last time.

And it includes some states that are on the fringe of what you might call swing states like Michigan Pennsylvania states expect to go for the president.

All eleven of these states were won by President Obama for years ago they include everything from from states are leaning to Obama down of pure toss ups of Ohio Virginia.

And Florida so this is an average of the full of the eleven states.

That's correct if if there's average rose to a point where they're tied.

In all eleven states that probably means Romney's gonna win Ohio Virginia and Florida.

If the president can get into this range -- in right now Q3 four points in his favor it means the race for the White House is still a toss up is -- -- trend within the swing states by the way towards the president or towards his challenger.

There really hasn't been much of a trend in any of the polling for the last eight or nine weeks today overall nationally we show the president up by three points.

That's the best he's been a couple of months but really it's just at the upper end of the range.

He's getting 47%.

Support he hasn't done better than that since March how do you measure enthusiasm.

I think that's going to be very important in getting a ton out of key constituencies.

He's anyway you can measure that.

Yes and there's two different things the people refer to -- enthusiasm one is very important and one is not.

The very important one is how closely people or paying attention -- the campaign people were following -- are more likely turn out and vote.

And on that consistently Republicans have about a ten point edge in terms of people were following the campaign closely that's why he's likely voter polls.

Are much better for the Romney team than polls of registered voters or adults the second way of measuring enthusiasm.

If people do at a variety of approaches but we ask you know is are you excited about the candidate or -- a choice between the lesser of two evils.

Democrats.

Are more excited about their candidate than Republicans.

Will be updating these numbers tomorrow but.

That doesn't translate into extra votes and the reason is because a lot of Republicans may not be thrilled when Mitt Romney is a nominee.

But they sure want to get to the polls and vote against Barack Obama so the president provides -- passion for both sides.

Fascinating stuff please please come on back and tell us how things -- -- As we head towards the big vote Scott Rasmussen thanks very much and it's up.

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