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The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics Larry Sabato on the latest polling data ahead of the November election.
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Back to the big story today the Paul Ryan veep pick is giving Romney a bump in the polls.
And the new numbers off from Democrat leading sources first of Michigan.
In that state Romney leads President Obama 48 to forty fall.
And it Paul Ryan's home state Wisconsin the government gets 48% of the -- President Obama gets 47.
Larry's -- from the University of Virginia center for politics joins the company professor thanks for joining us as always.
I want to know -- my reading these latest polls correctly because I'm saying that locally Michigan and Wisconsin and nationally.
There is a very slight but -- drift to Romney among reading them right.
-- take the take the long run which I think you have to do with polling.
If you go back to -- the month or so after Romney locked down the Republican nomination.
There was a gap of five or six points between.
President Obama -- Mitt Romney now I think it's more like two.
The two or three the average nationally.
Has clearly scope the end and we've seen a narrowing of the gap in some of the key swing states and even some that -- originally considered swing states like Wisconsin.
So we out there is still there is a bit of a -- Part of its Paul Ryan that part of -- I think is a natural closing.
Because the economic conditions almost to -- and that this will be.
A closely contested competitive contest is the economy.
Issue front and center first and foremost above all other issues is -- the economy.
Oh absolutely.
And -- people say to me all the time but we're not discussing the economy we're discussing Medicare we're discussing Todd -- we're you know luck there there'd.
The campaign operates at two levels.
What -- what the media chatters about on TV you know not being insulting but that's that's one level.
The other level -- help people decide how they're gonna vote.
And their decisions are based on fundamental basic factors that affect their lives and the economy is number one number two and number three.
And -- I want you to just -- -- quick SoundBite from Vice President Biden attacking Republicans and using some pretty strong language.
All -- any objection relates sound like it's really -- already objections.
-- Romney did all his allies we passed some of the toughest Wall Street regulations and history.
Turning Wall Street back didn't -- the alligator capital it always has banned and no longer casino and they want to repeal it.
OK well he used expressions screaming like pigs okay -- use the chains analogy previously.
He's going to be in Tampa right in the middle all of the Republican Convention.
I just ask you out of -- a lot -- view is site.
This is unusual behavior for a vice president do you think it's a factor in the election and it any kind of factor in the polls.
I'm a minimalist when it comes to vice presidential nominees always have been occasionally they affect the results of the election but rarely.
Usually by November they faded into the background.
That's not to say that.
President of that vice president of Biden's.
Activities are not newsworthy.
You know I thought about publishing a book the book -- Biden gaffes it would be as long as war and peace.
You know for the Democrats.
They really they really -- applies something -- Obama has learned to Vice President Biden.
President Obama -- learn to use teleprompters.
If there wasn't -- -- argument to be made for teleprompters.
It would be applied to Vice President Biden if -- be getting to stick to the script.
I think you're wrong about this -- vice presidential pick in poll Ryan.
Forgive me for saying it but -- I think he has turned around the Romney campaign breath of fresh and new guide Smart gone.
Impossible to really demonize them and it can't hate Paul Ryan.
I think he's made a difference.
No I'm not saying that he isn't he hasn't strengthened Romney among the base I think he has I think he's energized.
A lot of Republicans who were excited about Mitt Romney.
But you know in the end this is an election about the incumbent the incumbent has polarized.
People into two camps.
And not many of the people who become excited by Paul Ryan would have been here for Mitt Romney at least in the voting Booth.
The difference Ryan has made is -- and perhaps giving them.
To volunteer more to give more money and those things do have indirect effects on the final vote so.
We agree more than we disagree on you write that book so it would be a best stuff up and Biden book of -- stuff.
-- salado -- thank you very much indeed so we always appreciate it.
