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Oliver Pursche of Gary Goldberg Financial Services weighs in on economic policy and his outlook for the markets.
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You very much.
Well the odds of QE3 increase saying according to Reuters latest monthly economic survey this -- Anderson economists lowering.
They're growth forecast for but this year and next for the US economy while raising our outlooks on the chances for a new round of fed stimulus.
Before the November presidential election 60% they're now saying dollar portion Gary Goldberg financial services president and co portfolio manager for the G and G defensive beta fund.
Is here so it looks as if these economists are saying that Ben Bernanke.
Is more likely to produce -- fed dealers that they were talking to you agree with that.
I do agree that he's more likely to do is -- not there's a number different -- she can be pulling so I'm not entirely convinced it's going to be outright printing of extra money.
But he can exaggerate Operation Twist that we're going through he can lower the reserve requirements just lots of things.
The Ben Bernanke and most of the Fed members want to do to accelerate growth in the economy.
And more importantly to help create jobs whether they'll be successful lot of as a result of not as a whole different conversation but they think they would be -- Is -- bullish than Oliver on the markets because you're you're saying at this point as we get towards November we've got basically September and October left to trade.
Before the election you're saying we'll leave the melt up in stocks and you were looking for up is up because of vernacular something that's.
Part of that's a big apart assist Barkley speaking equities do very very well in the three months leading up to the election and we've seen that a little bit are ready.
If you think about it the S&P is up some eleven or 12% since the June form those.
And it's the rally hasn't gotten any respect at all it's kind of robbed and beat Rodney Dangerfield of rallies right now we're just just.
No one believes -- it and that's actually a positive sign it's a little bit of a -- -- indicator.
But you wanna be very careful as an investor and you don't wanna just -- the buy anything and everything -- you wanna be selective.
OK so no respect from up from markets participants as far as earnings go over to the same time that you were looking inhabited by -- waiting how we've been doing so far in this earnings is NN.
A lot of a lot of companies have beat on the revenue side a lot of companies could be coming your insides noted -- that's another bullish on.
Yes so you don't granted earnings estimates have come down revenue estimates have come down but some 76%.
I think through yes through Friday afternoon.
Have beat on the earnings per share side only about 40% on the revenue side so that's a little bit Newcomb of a concern.
Which makes it even more important for investors and -- for -- managers like us to pay attention to the revenue side over the EPS side you.
Also have Bob brought down your your cash positions for your overall -- portfolios I mean you're telling your clients you yourself are saying.
Less cash it has -- in your opinion of.
Yes so we word about 15% cash and April and early may.
We started gradually pushing back in so it's not an overwhelming conviction were saying go all in.
But as the markets continue to creep up and that's economic numbers don't worsen and I think that's important part they -- worsened.
I'm we continue to content commit a little bit more cash.
Very selectively get in different sectors of the market and company.
Really -- -- you do have some stock picks I do want to get to them because their area can sing especially Amazon.
So this is a retail play in your opinion it yet we look at Amazon -- automated -- -- you -- that the old saying don't in Q3 has three seasons it has summer.
But as the back to school season and has Halloween as a necessity -- Halloween stuff already -- and and frightening and that's impact on line retailers repeats particular while gasoline prices continue to be so high.
And with gasoline so high and free shipping offers if you spend more than forty to fifty bucks which is pretty easy to do okay Amazon is going to be when stocks have 73% -- like the dividend that is apple.
Yup our latest about breaking news on the top -- the our -- news and and and you know if you listen to Tim Cook in his last speech.
The education area -- apple is huge and they've just started to penetrated.
With the potential of an iPad -- with the potential for iPad.
IPhone 5 coming out in the coming months.
We think that the stock has locked room to run keep in mind is volatile so investors should expect some volatility there uh huh okay you also likened this -- -- -- like Molson course they other takers -- CA paid.
The last I must have a -- has been rising about 10% what's going on -- this -- -- -- of at a big jump from from Wilson course yet it has been a big jump but it's also kind of been reflected in general market activity.
-- course has finished its own corporate incorporation of some businesses they bought in India and other parts of Asia.
So that's starting to be reflected in their earnings capability in that integration with sped up a little bit more than analysts first expected.
Again it's also recession proof.
And markets so -- outfit yeah exactly.
I don't know what you but -- -- on the drinker.
The market -- -- that the sale this instance topics honor your -- very bullish -- doesn't show like a thank you very much Oliver thank you found out on the show.
