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Citigroup chief equity strategist Tobias Levkovich on how the U.S. could lead the global economy if we go off the fiscal cliff.
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Well the Financial Times reporting that business executives rolled -- think it would be better for the global economy if President Obama remained at office.
Citing recent survey results 37%.
Of the 17100 international executives felt.
President Obama would be more helpful to the economy.
And their businesses and that Romney I spoke with what executive yesterday's -- CEO John Chambers who says no matter who wins the election it will be up to the US lead the world.
Out of the slump.
I just hope whoever the next president is is they get back on how do we create jobs and American how does business work together to solve these problems.
Because I think we can do it as a country and I'm becoming more convinced America must lead the world out -- economic slowdown.
Joining me now Citigroup chief equity strategist Tobias Levkovich to devise some curious if you agree with mr.
chambers as the burden.
On this country on us to lead the global company.
-- at this point really is the US.
By far -- largest economy in the world but more importantly.
It's the one that's doing -- -- in terms of fed policy well you -- -- Europeans for example lagging your vehicle to China they're -- their descend ill leadership.
Transition and and it has held them back from being able to -- more stimulus.
But let's talk about the idea that the US Italy the rest of the world is that we're approaching the fiscal left you've been writing about that Citigroup has been researching it trying to -- -- tell your clients.
Either due -- I think I think the US is an act -- actually at that point of austerity we we knew a lot of responsible but they were to avoid austerity down the road.
Com and he didn't even the various frozen -- have been talked about doesn't really slash spending and talks about slowing the growth rate of spending that ultimately means less dollars spent combined.
Of that music companies won't be expanding giving her into talking about the fiscal clip this would siphon out 500 billion dollars out of the US economy if everything word -- this.
You know hit the wall right off the cliff if you will the end of the year mean who has others are gonna happen they're -- think there's a potential.
So be bigger than that than the the numbers decided that it would it would these emerging foreign 5% GDP if everything happened.
We don't think everything will happen but more importantly.
The the the notion of you know going over the fiscal cliff is overstating it Tom if we do fiscal reform.
-- really.
Puts it more credible path they're gonna probably see PE multiples expand equity risk premiums -- high today because.
Everyone knows running trillion dollar deficits endlessly ends badly in all it does look.
Across the -- your colleagues you know I'm well above n.'s Brian Ireland Morgan Stanley was saying that 40% of companies in -- researches then you know that saying that companies are completely holding off.
Of expansion because of the election because the fiscal -- what is your research telling you.
Well we actually looked at 700 nonpublic non non financial us -- publicly traded companies that are don't sexually covered look at what they're telling us about their capital spending programs.
They're up about 13% year over and -- -- They were telling us back in May there was only up 11% so that actually edged up terror programs we thought you were surprised by the data we talked -- -- would make them -- back.
Let me businesses and sectors obvious -- that -- has been looking at because I think what you're saying eventually be defensive.
Look at some risk but -- offensive -- -- got this that the sectors that you cited thank you kind of recommending tech hardware semiconductors.
Insurance.
Those -- your defensive play Smart.
The seventies and tech hardware more aggressive cyclical plays if you look at.
Had diversified financials insurance those are there are more offensive if you look at more of the others like Telecom utilities those have been one of the defense.
He didn't like tablet -- in like retail.
You know does not rule it out and those are areas we've been concerned about yeah our above that the back to school season we'll see how that doesn't -- -- good to have you on the show again thank you.
