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Which is More of a Leading Indicator, Consumers or Small Business?

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    RBS senior economist Michelle Girard on the retail sales rebound.

  • Duration 2:55
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So while there have been some concerns about the consumer new numbers show retail sales posted their biggest jump last month since February.

My next guest says that in it that is encouraging joining me now is Michelle Girard -- yes senior economist.

We.

See this did act I mean this is a lot better than whatever -- -- looking forward why do you think that happen.

Well you know we inkling that that was -- gonna be the risk on the we certainly heard from the chain store sales in a we have reports out earlier on -- couple weeks ago that their sales numbers actually -- For July -- pretty good the best that we've seen in in a couple of several months I should say.

On the and and so I mean I think that we were hoping hoping that after three dismal months the consumer MI regains I think that that's exactly what's happened here do you think it's a one time.

Pop because there's so much pent up demand and I mean let's face it your kids they get bigger you -- -- them into the theater -- for so long.

-- -- you know there's nothing else you could get event at one time same or is this the consumer feeling battering coming out of their shall.

Yeah I laughed because obviously we're doing that they -- yeah accept things but.

I think there's just some expense and pay back on the I think things were really much more worries some.

In the spring and I I do think that that -- this caution on the part of consumers that we're starting to feel better.

I in July don't forget we had some pretty good job numbers in the month of July I think things you know and in general that that stock market was a little bit better.

I think people felt like say you know I think -- comes among came out.

But of course the real question will be how does that back to school shopping season yeah -- -- at a hearing mixed results.

-- but it I think is not whether hopefully is gonna -- a little bit cooler.

-- will start to see some of that demand pick up yet no absolutely -- -- my back to school -- with some looks like he's waiting for the flight to come kinder is so much stand up behind I got it right.

I feel like -- you also get the NFIB survey when they're saying that small businesses are pessimistic.

How do you reconcile the two reports which you think is the leading indicator which is a lagging indicator well because small businesses so important for the job situation and I think that you have to do is the job situation is a leading indicator for consumers and consumer spending I -- think -- -- -- is more of a leading indicator of -- the -- -- that businesses have.

It in the face of the uncertainty we're talking earlier about which candidate would -- businesses like to see if it gets pretty -- Which but which you know candidate with this small business would like to see it terms of the outcome of the November elections -- I don't think they -- mood.

Is going to feel a lot better and sell they get by those November elections and hopefully get the result that they want yeah.

We show you -- the very best thanks for coming on insuring your time with air regulator -- -- -- back to school did you see this high end designers putting up -- -- -- and indulging the bond is several hundred dollar kids spending 700 dollars in -- shoes for kids in this article I mean you wanted to -- -- -- that was realized -- it's ridiculous it's outrageous.

I'm thinking -- my -- the only ones now.

That -- messy and.

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