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Nowadays most people have cell phone and some people like me.
Don't even have a land -- anymore I gave my up well studies show that the majority of people they communicate exclusively by assault on May vote differently from those that don't.
Which brings up an interesting question when political pollsters.
Pollsters actually randomly call people out there are they calling the cell phone of the -- -- line.
And how does that skew the results.
Joining me now is former Clinton pollster Doug shown.
And National Journal poll -- editors Stephen -- -- indictable start with you Doug honor this is driving people.
Crazy it absolutely is Tom.
The dirty little secret of political polling as -- just don't know.
What wait to -- land lines vs cell phones.
We don't know how different if at all cell phone users -- are from.
The populace that uses land lines and bottom line the polling industry is really in a quandary over how to deal with the precise issue you raise.
I'm one of those without land line so.
First of all how do you even get a hold of me because I -- I regular pizzeria this week aren't -- some FCC rules about.
You is that restrictions on calling cell phones that's absolutely correct and -- I'm one of those two I also don't have a landline phone.
The most polls call.
Landline phones using -- -- call random digit dialing it's a computer generates a random phone number -- may be within a specific area -- if you're trying to -- -- a certain state.
And -- And generate that number and and it calls the computer calls cellphones need to be dialed by hand see you can.
Generator random number but it human being actually has to punch in the numbers.
Manually and that makes it a lot more time consuming a lot more expensive for -- news organizations or.
Political consultants or or other organizations that you -- -- to go ahead and do that.
I saw Doug where there was some theory that says that cell phone users -- cell phone only users.
Tend to vote more democratic and I'm thinking is it is it because it's the cell phone only people are generally younger people therefore there may be more demo.
Crap I think that's the theory Tom but it's only a theory I think.
Different elections people vote different ways there's -- sense that perhaps cellphone people.
Wise may be different than those who have land -- but all of this is work in progress.
And we don't have specific -- we also don't know what percentage of a sample should be cell phone users so constructing a sample.
At the very least is a real challenge -- And Stephen again I think it was your column that was talking about this was this within the NBC Wall Street Journal poll.
Bomb their cell phone.
Number it's up to from 25 to 30% and yet Rasmussen was like 15%.
So do you get you get different results.
That's correct and and sometimes you can't get different results the most studies show that about a third of adult Americans do not have a landline phones and -- only have cell -- Like you were saying that tends to be a younger -- tends to skew younger for instance the majority people under age 35 don't have landline telephones.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- People who are that age ten don't don't vote in the same numbers as older folks and people over 65.
Only eight to 9% of them don't have landline phones so if your polling for the election.
Did the question is fifteen -- 2530 what what percentage and I think a lot of posters are are grappling with that and you know it might be until.
November 7 before we know the answer that's gonna say -- -- for both you guys like it to work.
That work in progress Tom it very much as a work in progress look I'm gonna.
Professional pollster for the better part of thirty before cell -- go -- Before his touch -- dial sales hit a risk appetite but the bottom line is for the first come and we really don't know how to construct samples and we don't know.
What a real random sample is and this is -- the industry into a quandary we have some polls today that show.
President Obama ten points or more ahead we have other polls as governor Romney four points.
I had they both can't be right Tom.
They can't be but so here we are we've done we've not only a few more months ago Stephen.
That gonna call this is a close election or use or you'd think the polls.
After we get past Labor Day after we get to the the debates will will change all this polling anyway.
The answer is -- if if you go back and look at where previous presidents up for reelection have been at this stage in July and August.
You've seen -- that -- incumbents who won so Clinton in 96.
Going back Reagan in 84.
They were over 50% job approval and over 50% on the head to head ballot.
The presidents who lost.
And George H.
Bush they were below 40% job approval and below 40% in the ballot test.
We want a president who was in the mid to high forties actually high forties by August was George W.
Bush and he -- a pretty narrow victory.
And Barack Obama is in the mid to high forties right now on both measures so.
I I think we're looking at we're looking at a really close election and in their three opportunities for.
Bumps moving forward over the next.
Four weeks or selling that is vice presidential rollout and the two conventions and I think we'll know more after all that -- settled we -- we've always got somebody says something stupid.
I try not to that I Bernard dog aggregate bonds and I about the okay we are so -- they are the debate will them.
Can that make the difference well I think Steve's right there are three.
So called bombs in the next couple weeks and my prediction is a close race after the conventions will still be a close race.
The debates in 1980 -- governor Reagan didn't.
Framed his message and present a credible alternative I think that's governor Romney's.
Hope -- President Obama is hoping to continue to raise questions about the governor.
Two since his chances for election alright.
Doug shown and -- Stephen Shepperd thank you guys that.
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