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$20 Soybeans? Never Say Never

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  • Description

    WGN Radio Agribusiness director Orion Samuelson weighs in on the USDA's crop report.

  • Duration 4:01
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Again I have -- -- and -- Well there's another big story happening in the markets today -- worse than expected crop report is signaling a rise in food prices of up to 8%.

Gas prices continue to climb as the 12 punch for the consumer out there but what about the traders.

Well we -- want to inventory write up from the -- you've got -- -- -- price futures group.

And a Fox Business contributor he's got a sound energy first outer -- -- on sentinels and to know.

WGN radio during their back government of those -- more -- that crop report so let's talk about this really -- -- perspective because.

We are looking at now I'm I'm hearing the word.

That shortages.

You know corn shortages.

Rationing.

Is that we don't want to -- -- the defense right now on this atmosphere.

I don't think so I think rationing is already starting although I was surprised this week.

China bought 271000.

Tons of US soybeans this week at these higher prices that wasn't surprised.

Crop report today for me was not a surprise except the USDA.

Decided not to fudge around them blame came -- with the numbers.

Instead of stepping -- down over the next two or three months I frankly think there's crop is going to get worse and I don't share of the feeling on the part of some people.

The soybean crop will get better in August because those plants have been heard -- -- drought than they beat.

-- June and July.

But corn yes.

That crop will not improve with any rain.

As a matter of Flag Day farm futures magazine survey of 18100 farmers last week.

Put the crop be load ten billion bushels.

And I'm talking to people on the trading floor -- here in the midwest who say they could be closer than the number today's so.

I think we're going to see definite rationing I'm not sure we'll see a shortage.

We will see an increase in food prices over the next twelve months it's going to impact not only cereals and bread but.

Beef and -- Yeah I was looking about four -- 8% is the projected jump for their prices for the consumer but I was looking at those contracts or honesty were sticking and I think -- -- things that surprises me.

Is the activity in the corn contract we -- this to be a record year for corn.

We've ended up with the opposite thanks old man weather and then you look -- -- you look at the at the percentages here corn production the estimate now.

Down 70% just over the last month of surprise of the corn contract has reacted the way it is right now give any sense of what's happening.

I think its demand and I think that in the USDA report.

They did the increase old crop corn stocks and the -- that would be.

Demand rationing although here on the trading for the board of trade there are now calling -- demand the destruction.

Rather than demand rationing but.

When prices get to a certain level and we've seen corner of record price -- the last two days.

You begin to run out of buyers particularly the speculative buyers because they -- -- the price now.

Do they really want to get into this market as a speculator because how much more can it go I'm still hearing people who say ten dollar corn.

Forty dollars soybeans.

I never say never by the time not sure.

Think you know that it wasn't an annoyance that about you brought you brought attention point -- -- and that is about the fact that this is speculation the USDA has been criticized.

For being wrong on their numbers what do you make -- today's report do think they got it right.

I think they got -- right Dan -- frankly think we'll see a lower number next month but.

Remember the August report is -- first one based on reality not history.

Farmers have walked the fields there are 3000 tests blogs that are measured and looked at.

I think USDA got it right and that surprised me a little bit and other people because sometimes.

They don't want to shake the market too much so they will kind of -- step it down over two or three months but.

On the other hand I think they realize this market.

Has certainly -- did a lot of the drop factor into the price already.

The map that we're looking -- our hand tells a story on sentinels alive of course from the CB forced -- thank you there.

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