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Former Labor Department Chief of Staff Paul Conway on concerns over how the Labor Department calculates its employment data.
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Says fewer people filed for first time jobless benefits last week is go ahead.
It don't celebrate yet the numbers rely and obscure formula called the birth death death model which calculates changes for small businesses and it yeah me.
They are using some questionable new maps to explain what that model isn't what it means I'm joined by -- -- former Labor Department chief of staff and president of generation opportunity Paul we are so happy to have you back today.
And let's go right into it you know there was a lot of work done by a great reporter the New York Post John -- -- he's been following this.
For bunch of articles -- a rally he basically he looked at the July statistics where we added a 163000.
Jobs everybody thought that was great.
When you dig into the number you realize that 52000.
Of those.
Come from this birth death model so that's almost a third of these jobs.
And the model is it.
Very scientific I -- they don't go out and ask people it's just sort of -- gas and this 52004.
This July.
In addition compares to last July where this same.
Group lost 181000 a year before it lost 38000.
A year before that 2009 it lost 101000 so all of -- and they're very optimistic about this one little patch of jobs and it's having a big impact on the number what do you think about all that that was a lot of information.
It's all good information and actually the columnists has -- -- record.
Pointing putting her very strong flashlight on this issue and here's what the deal -- -- the current environment -- several months -- from a national election.
And so the data that's actually produced by the bureau labour statistics and secretary solstice.
At the department lawyers very important not only for obviously the political back and forth for most importantly for the economy and those who actually make investments and jobs.
So when -- -- an uptick in a figure which is an aberration given the preceding years much of the focus goes on the model.
So at the Bureau of Labor Statistics basically the history of this is in 2000 they develop the model they implemented it over several years.
To try to estimate on an ongoing basis for total employment.
What the new jobs were there were being created in what the old jobs were there we're going away because of this is going out your business is coming in business is going out an important time.
This models created it uses a survey of -- 141000.
Different businesses and government agencies out of about 480000.
Across the country.
-- of a survey and then in addition -- that you have a statistical modeling.
Program that's used you take those two components and that's.
Your tool do you trust this I mean it -- -- the bottom line on this number do you trusted do you think it's actor because it's it's -- I mean we've seen a dramatic change it makes me suspicious.
Plus 52000.
From minus eighteen minus 38 minus ten.
When everything else is moving in the opposite direction.
Why would say this sometimes the models the government use.
Invite a lot of different questions.
But part aware of invites more questions is when you look at a whole series of different issues going on at the Department of Labor.
And I think asking questions about this one is important because right now you have the uptick in this one he had the fact that you have an IG that has not been in place for a thousand days.
You have a career -- acting official at the head of BLS.
And you have a cabinet officer who's doing various things including telling defense contractors not to let their employees know if they could potentially be laid off.
So it.
Against that backdrop you have a lot of different questions that are being asked.
And for the folks -- the Bureau of Labor Statistics these are career government officials these are professionals they don't like to be put.
And that type of light in terms of the integrity of the model I think there's been debate back and forth over the years on at the -- largest seen is -- okay model.
But when you have an aberration like this that is obviously the reason why people are gonna ask questions and why the columnist from the New York Post has put a question on especially when.
Almost 13 of those new jobs created last month are stemming from this model.
Paul I love you to death you didn't answer my question do you trust this number do you not trust this number I'm I'm going -- -- -- here and I don't trust this number.
How do you feel -- I'll be straight with your -- -- now -- I would say is.
Those who can do some oversight on this and -- -- around -- -- second -- ought to do that there in the congress there GAO in -- in the inspector general's office I think they ought to take a serious look at it.
I don't think it's because of the -- Career officials at work here but four runs out from an election have an aberration like this I think people ought to take a look at -- -- -- I don't trust this current number no I don't.
Why we modeling that and thank you about by the way why are we modeling this part of it as opposed to I -- it seems to me that that the rest of the labour data.
Is collected a little bit more traditionally.
And this one is it is a little different this part of it and I -- and -- -- part of it is.
It is -- dynamic type and number because you try to estimate the number new jobs created from businesses that small businesses that are just coming on line.
And -- jobs that are exiting because of the the death of businesses -- in -- it's kind of dynamic to begin with and that's that's why they really spent a lot of -- Trying trying to come up with a model that was effective.
Paul thank you so much for coming on I want to give another shout out to John for now from the New York Post for digging all this up in doing all this good work because approximately important to like.
And we hope you'll come -- Okay.
