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Harris Private Bank CIO Jack Albin on how to make smart investment choices amid increasingly volatile markets in the U.S. and Europe.
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A positive earnings news.
May be responsible for giving stocks a boost today but my next guest says those -- the exact things that could weigh on this market moving forward.
Joining me now is Jack apple in chief investment officer with Harris private bank Jack thank you for joining us.
Odds are you why Daschle saying look in the next how we could have a negative comment from the ECB -- -- -- brandish prime minister who who have a and these markets will suddenly moved down is that your point.
Well hey yeah actually -- -- and I think the point is that.
They have that -- -- the European leaders are all on vacation and they and the fact is that the capital markets don't typically go on vacation.
And all it takes is one little miss miss -- like last year.
And you have these you know European leaders trips around their bathing suits trying to calm things down.
-- -- -- Not a pretty picture it up OK so look arm and one of the things that was interesting and -- talking points -- saying to people.
Policy makers are getting a little worried now that consumers are spending less saving more and paying down their debt and of course.
In a consumer driven economy like the US that's not always the best news.
That's every hour it's called the paradox of thrift I mean in the long run it makes total sense we Americans.
Have never been good -- we do need to save for the future.
Problem is in the near term all of this saving means that we're not spending -- -- and in an economy as you said.
That relies.
You know so much on consumer spending.
You know now that are high savings rate is -- highest it's been in the year end trending higher.
It's really really vexing a lot of our US policy makers right now what is it going to take to get the consumers to come back to the market and really get this economy fired up.
Well I think one a couple of good things -- Actually want is that that is stabilizing housing market you know if if he had -- -- you can blame the Fed for a lot of things.
Biden.
The one thing that they really didn't do was really get this housing market.
Stabilized and bottoming out in May -- even improving so I think if homeowners believe that.
The equity in their homes is actually there.
And they can tap bed and perhaps they can sell their home or.
Or at least feel like they can tap into it love that could die allow them to flex their muscles -- Look would be better than expected -- lost job reports -- nonfarm payrolls is that lessening the chance of QE3.
I think yeah I -- it takes QE3 off the table.
You know that that.
It was I know the market was rallying in anticipation of the Fed swooping in and protecting everybody who -- in the stock market.
But I do think that down they you know as long as the jobs report continues positive now we've now had more than a 100000 jobs -- -- I think that that's gonna keep the Fed to pay for awhile you know all -- really are back to -- -- where.
-- these at least a ten year Spanish yields continue to creep higher they're flirting with -- dangerous level of 7%.
One of the things I observe this morning and senate thing around was that if you look at the spreads of Spain relative to Germany when we're finding that they're leaving Italy by about three months that it's just following the same path.
Right Jack world must have very quickly do expect profit growth to pick up and a third Cordoba basically on low energy and commodity calls.
Which really doesn't speak about strengthen the economy though does it.
Now I you know I do think -- -- in 2012.
Wins.
Slightly over hundred dollars a share in S&P profits that will allow listed.
Stay over 14100 of the S&P so little bit higher from here between now and year end right very good weather time Jack Caplan thank you so much for joining us appreciate it.
