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Mayflower Advisors Managing Partner Larry Glazer and Omnivest Group Co-President Tom Sowanick on the state of the markets and economy.
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It's in the red today after the European Central Bank failed to take any action.
Pretty much time for street fight today's bears mayflower advisors managing partner Larry Glazer and represented evolves on the best group -- president and CIO Thomson want -- good to see you both guys and I -- I wanna qualified Tom -- not an absolute.
-- on in this market and and time you admit that the market's been moved.
Kind of artificially by central banks to the upside is -- ready for -- fall from that.
Seasonally -- we've heard that we're supposed to be in a fall remember last year and the year before but you know the work -- that we've done.
-- most recently we looked at.
You know how many times that we have a positive June and July.
Back to back and what was the subsequent return for the year.
And we went back to 1990s -- 22 years is not as long as Bill Gross thinks we should use but nonetheless.
There -- you know seven periods that we've had back to back June and July returns positive.
And of those six that the average total return was 28 point 2%.
For the entire year.
The seventh one what happened this past two months ago so I think that the market is under owned I think sentiment is horrible.
And I think when you get the bond king talking about is the death of of equities I think it's it perhaps may be tied to start thinking about getting even more bullish.
Well and Larry -- you think completely contrary to that and then in fact you're point speaking loudly today the Dow down 92 points.
You'll like the market at these levels.
That's right.
What is no question that when we look at some of the points in time makes does make some excellent points and in terms of sentiment is no question that that's been an issue however I dropped -- very different conclusions.
And I am very cautious on the US economy right now and I think rightly so we look at a series of data points -- -- for the economy is grinding lower and.
Perilously close to recession at the current levels.
Also the bigger issue is not just the slowing economy but the headwinds that we could face later this year with the so called fiscal clip and the possibility.
Have -- US debt downgrade which would rock our world.
But the biggest issue here is that there appears almost to be 85 and -- Between the -- ladies and the main street economy which is very slow and very challenging.
As evidenced by the GDP which is lackluster and it's going for it reminds retail sales slowing for three months.
Job creation below 400000 for three months all of those issues -- the slowing economy but there's -- disconnect it's not being priced into the market.
If the market were lower at a price -- and I won't be much more cards but that markets held -- Hello how below that they think we're worried we -- look at 101000 -- at 121878.
Where how low does that ago.
-- no question well again yet again that the pessimism that we see is valuable and at that pessimism coincided with lower valuation.
We be optimistic if you get a decent correction -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Overseas well you gotta have a strong stomach for that Tom I'm waiting on one thing because I think Larry overstates the case of the danger of the fiscal -- and particularly the danger.
Of the debt downgrade haven't we -- that average didn't do that much to to upset the markets when it came initially there was a bump but not long term.
Also.
Even if you're Democrat even if -- President Obama you got to be nuts to wanna raise taxes there's a lot of talk in this election season about raising taxes under a considerate when push comes to shove I don't think it's gonna happen to you -- I don't think it will either and I think that you have some point before the election we'll get a compromise between the Democrats and Republicans.
Then we'll get an extension of the tax bill one more time.
All right that's gotta be the last word tops I want to copyright is heavily areas open and let's and hope springs eternal -- -- market time and Larry great to see you both guys thank you so much take I don't think I want to thank.
