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The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato on the impact of swing voters in the upcoming presidential election.
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Now despite president Obama's record on the economy -- remains ahead of Mitt Romney in nearly every poll.
At the election the swing vote decides the outcome so we're told but some pulses of told bonding company that those voters to swing voters -- paying attention yet but not really delve into the issues -- -- University of Virginia center for politics he joins the company now professor is that.
Accurate to that the swing voters are not paying attention.
Well -- two things about swing voters first of all there aren't nearly as many of them is the pollsters tell you there are.
Because first of all a lot of people define themselves as being swing voters or independent voters when they art.
They like being courted by both parties and by the candidates but.
If you get them off the record and you we examined they're voting record over the past 45.
Presidential elections you can see a clear partisan trends so that's the first thing.
The second thing is.
It's certainly true that many of them haven't been focusing on the campaign that that doesn't mean they don't have an opinion or predilection to vote one way of the other.
-- so I'm not a big believer in swing voters particularly in a year like this when -- up polarizing incumbent is on the ballot.
And pretty much already has divided America into two camps the vast majority of people already know for whom they're going to vote get.
I want to -- Florida for a second.
I got a poll from PPP.
In that poll President Obama leads Mitt Romney by one percentage point in Florida.
I've also got a quinnipiac poll also in Florida -- President Obama leads Romney by six points.
It looks like at this stage Florida big key state Electoral College votes going to Obama and you say.
I doubt it as long as this is a close competitive election.
I would think Florida in the end would probably go for Romney now remember I said as long as it's a close competitive election.
Of Florida is one of our seven great swing states at the crystal ball.
But of the seven I'd say it's the most Republican it's most likely to go Republican so.
Whatever the polls say the day let's remember it's August 1 the election is November 7.
November 6 they're 97 days to go until the election.
And an awful lot is going to be -- -- to those 97 days.
Can you explain something to me most of the polls that I've seen show President Obama with a slim lead -- at least tied with Mitt Romney.
Even as the economy supposedly the key issue.
Head south with some terrible economic news being released recently why is the president ahead.
In -- of economic environment.
Well number one let's remember that he's ahead but he's below 50% Stewart.
And my guess is that the president needs some good luck some good numbers at some point in the fall.
In order to be able to get across the finish line they could come and unemployment report it could come in the third quarter GDP that.
But we need to keep these things in perspective.
And you know second.
You know to be honest Romney has not had the most positive.
Uplifting.
Personal image now that may change at his convention.
He's got a four -- info commercial coming would you say a tremendous opportunity for him.
And his team to redefine him or to let people get to know certain aspects of his personality that they have not yet know.
So it is too early to make these kinds of conclusions.
We have to wait until the general election.
That doesn't start until the two conventions are finished on itself thanks so much for joining us -- always nice how to thank you so thank you.
