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Case-Shiller Index co-author Robert Shiller discusses his latest report on home prices.
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-- -- to another piece of -- in today that would be the data on home prices single family home prices rising.
For the fourth month in a row according to the -- -- PK Shiller home price index C.
Real estate site zillow last week said it believes housing is hit the bottom so.
Does Robert Shiller agree after seeing these.
It's index I feel like we ask in this every month and I'm sure he's sick -- -- so we'll keep it up the co author of the Case Shiller Index and professor of economics at Yale.
Joins us.
Right now how about this talk about housing.
Bottom these home price figures do look pretty good today in your index.
They do look good and one thing that I believe in and home price forecasting is momentum so we do have some upward momentum.
Part of it is just seasonal though we're going into the summer month.
If you look at a lot of the data it doesn't look like that bigger rebound yet and it could just -- mostly seasonal.
So I'm not confident I think it's possible that this is about them but I'm not at all -- and I I tend to worry more than most people about.
The the longer run down ten resuming.
-- That is.
Kind of interest again we know that from talking to you over the last -- many by -- really about it is right.
That you have to -- doesn't I was gonna say you've been dead on with this episode being this spring and then as you say their early -- -- you see people going out.
And buying a little bit more so it's a good sign I guess that they -- are as they are expected to be but then so when will we know.
That we should take these numbers a little bit more seriously is sometime in the fall -- -- we never know for sure it's a speculative market.
That the real question that is on my mind is.
Are we possibly off to the races again you know you know that the real estate market has become more volatile by the decade.
Over the last few decades and people are you know there.
I I think in cities like Phoenix or San Francisco.
We might be seeing something pretty big development is that people there are very.
Speculative minded now how I think.
So -- know.
Overall -- apparently you are a -- -- second.
Professor Shiller you say there's another bubble forming in some areas is that or that type particular -- -- There could be you know are these -- take you by surprise bubbles occur sometimes into the least optimal time that's because people think.
That you wanna buy before the news is right -- in the midst of a recession you could start a bubble.
And in Europe Europe Northern Europe has a.
Housing boom going on right now.
Despite the troubles that Europe is brother -- Southern Europe that.
It it's kind of surprising that there would be such a boom going on there.
It is surprising and it's also surprising I think to.
You know the president doesn't studied this like you do that it might be happening in some parts of the of this country what areas in particular are you looking at.
And -- will you continue to look at and how much data do you need before you draw some sort of -- conclusion.
I'll never know for should have never ever clear conclusion.
There's a lot of things that that -- matter like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still unresolved.
What what's congress gonna do they -- in the mortgage deduction.
All sorts of uncertainties right now.
So but you know the thing -- momentum does matter and I have and I am.
Very much noticing the strong performance we had in the last night with 2.2 percent and one month if it kept that up to be like over -- 4%.
In the year write it won't because this is partly seasonal.
-- the Euro area the areas you're thinking about that in the bubble like behavior areas of the country.
Well I think of the the previous them notably it would be San Francisco and Phoenix.
But many other things looked like bubble -- but I'm not sure they are like Chicago was up a -- this month.
Atlanta was up a lot this month but part of this -- -- bands have she got part of this is just the decline in foreclosure activity.
So we just had to be -- from Karl logic that prime foreclosure activity is down about a quarter from a year ago.
And so that's going to be.
Boost the index now it could be that that's the kind of stimulus that we're getting the stimulus being that people see home prices going up because there aren't as many foreclosures.
And -- -- to get optimistic and reinforcing that that could be what's happening.
Robert Shiller it is always our pleasure having on in the night job talking through these issues -- we'll keep doing it so take care and thanks for joining us today.
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