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The Real Unemployment Numbers

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    ShadowStats.com Creator John Williams argues the unemployment rate could actually be as high as 22%.

  • Duration 5:20
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So this -- where -- once again putting the unemployment rate to the smell test the government.

They've been telling us jobless rate is only studied eight point 2% but one man's analysis of the data.

Shows that the unemployment rate could actually be as high as 22%.

So -- we crossed the data coming out of Washington on.

Well for unemployment to inflation do all kinds of economic measures.

Joining me now is economist and the creator of shadow government statistics John Williams and John.

You're number came out this past weekend I looked added 22 point nine I think it's something like that.

Why is your number so much different than the one that we get from the government.

What's the matter definition.

If you world order around the country -- everyone whether or not here -- was unemployed.

Average got to get a quick response she doesn't have to think about it most people have a reversal of opinion on that.

The problem is that you get a much higher unemployment rate if you based it on such -- survey as opposed what the government which are due to definition.

The government actually puts -- six measures of unemployment the headline number the U three unemployment rate.

Hedge people needing and wanting a job and willing and able to take your job.

But -- the defining factor what differentiates is that you.

People in the headline unemployment have looked for work in the west for wage.

If people haven't found jobs they're looking for while they give up looking for work because -- job should be had.

The government no longer counts in the headline number it'll count them as a discouraged worker.

If they have full look for work in the last year but not the the last 44 weeks -- Coach cabin in the government share.

Broadest measure which is called -- six.

At that also include she people working part time for economic reasons and they can't find it.

-- full time job.

That -- six number is up from fourteen point 9%.

Worthy.

Do the headline numbers of eight point 2%.

The back in 1994.

Discouraged workers were were touted.

Forever and if -- been if you if you hadn't looked for work in the last two years.

The virtues but still we're ready and able to take the job you wanted a job you considered your self employed the government had to do it doesn't now.

Yeah what happens is I think that's a key a key point here is that in 1994 the government was doing.

The long term unemployed.

What's it what did they -- they stopped in 1994.

And what's interesting is that -- day you kept doing the same study you just kept on doing that.

What was it because of the fact it wasn't long term unemployed people out there is that why they stop -- and today we have them again.

I can't tell you why they stopped -- although there have likely were portal through considerations because a whole series.

Was -- at the time the data before 1994.

Are not comparable with -- -- data after 1994.

I estimate the long term discouraged workers those.

Those people that no longer cabin by the government that would -- moved from -- Unemployed in the U and the EU three and a movement to.

That the broader discouraged -- category in the -- -- but -- -- it.

Leave -- search certainly brought.

I estimate the number to put that back and on top of the U six.

You're together at an unemployment rate around 23%.

Which is a higher -- side we're very close to it.

-- the -- of the post World War II Arab.

It's about ten percentage points shy of what a comparable number would've been in the Great Depression.

Yeah and there's there's the charred and then you can see the the bottom line is at eight point 2% than that used sick like used to that kind of that I I like to revert to the -- a short.

The short term discouraged workers -- ones -- aren't looking any more.

And then your number of their but what's troubling is is is that the use six and your number are going up they're not going -- That strike because the increasingly.

People try to have a hard work and they're falling into that -- -- long term discouraged category.

It's a very bad circumstance.

It's not an economic recovery in -- -- you can look at the payroll survey.

Which is the other side of the employment picture of where the capita number of jobs created if you look at the level there.

We've just recovered levels seen.

Before going -- to -- that the 2001.

Recession.

1111.

Years ago.

We're still Walt sharp recovery in and the payroll employment this is not an economic -- One of the -- one of the things every time this comes out on the first Friday of every month every -- a lot of people think there's some sort of political gamesmanship going on.

Commission when -- -- close to a presidential election.

I've always -- chalked it up to -- that you've got two different surveys of the payroll survey in the household survey.

Then you got your survey what's right back.

Well.

Together as a matter of definition if you -- -- if you -- an estimate of where unemployment -- says -- Would reflect common experience of the American people I'd I'd give you my number.

Yeah I think your number is probably more records well you wore an interesting guy and I appreciate you so much shadow government statistics John Williams thank you so much for joining us.

Have thank you for having me --

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