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Citigroup Global Head of International Economics Nathan Sheets on how the European debt crisis and the fiscal cliff are impacting the U.S., as well as...
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Well joining me now Nathan sheets is the global head of international economics for Citigroup that's good news good -- to be here.
We are now starting to see the market turned after a few days perhaps a couple weeks of -- Back to Europe and expressing its concern.
How much trouble in your judgment is European.
And how much should we be worried about.
Think they're broadly speaking to sources of uncertainty that are weighing on our economies the first of these problems in Europe you've discussed.
Huge questions about whether many of those countries are going to be able to make good on their debt.
Whether their economies are gonna grow whether there will move to address the problems they face.
I think the other source of uncertainty that's weighing on the global economy is right here at home.
And it focuses on the fiscal situation in the United States and whether congress is gonna take action.
To address the fiscal class.
We just listen to Grover Norquist say that you know basically that -- comes down to November 6.
-- we're gonna hamper wait to see what happens then we've got a lame duck session.
And congress in full session is pretty lame so it's -- it's horrifying to think that the prospect of right.
They shortened us session that would occur after a river sex.
I mean.
What is your reaction to this this acceptance this resignation that nothing will be done.
I'm I'm deeply worried about the outlook for US fiscal policy both in the short term and over -- longer horizon.
And it's just absolutely essential that we find some way to strike -- balance between the various competing.
Political objectives and we reach some kind of a compromise.
I really think that the outlook for the economy hinges in a very significant way.
And there being some kind of an agreement.
And that agreement do you think it's even remotely because.
If this growth for made very clear.
He is not a man brimming with hope that he will be able to commence the President Obama or senator Reid the senate majority leader to.
To abandon their hope for higher taxes.
In this period of our great fragility if -- can use understatement.
A for our economy.
It's it's not quite clear how we get to that compromise.
Indeed when I talked to people who are closer.
To the political process the closer people are the more pessimistic they are about the outlook.
But it it's naive of me but I would hope that the politicians and be able to come together and see what's best for the country.
What's best for the economy.
-- how we get there I think is an open issue.
There is we look at one issue and that is they over two trillion dollars that corporate America has sitting.
All right and accounts around the world that -- are not repatriating.
Not investing -- not using to -- -- With leadership.
One would think that a president could energize and encouraged that repatriation.
I am I being as -- -- use the -- in my being somewhat.
Nine even thinking that leadership here could make all the difference and.
The return to prosperity I I think the two trillion dollars to you mentioned really tells the story that on the one hand corporate America is very strong.
It has strong balance sheets and they're in a position to start investing and hiring when they feel comfortable.
And now it's incumbent on the political process the president and the congress to put in place policies there are going to instill confidence.
In corporate board rooms among corporate treasurers and unlock those resource hasn't yet been going to provide employment investment in the economy.
For the remainder of this year.
What is your sense of how our economy and our markets are going to do.
Or should be our level of anxiety is another way of -- I am I'm hopeful but we'll see 2% growth in the second half of the year.
But I'd say the uncertainties in the risks around that are mostly to the down slide there's there's more adverse.
Possibilities.
Out there than has been the case for quite some time.
The best thing that could happen would be some kind of an agreement on the fiscal cleft in the path for fiscal policy.
Similarly.
If we could have more aggressive moves from Europe.
More convincing actions that they are actually taking control of their situation that would be very helpful.
But barring action in those two fronts I think 2% -- the best we can hope for and there's a good chance that it may be it may be worse than that.
Even even the slimmest of hopes of risk here if -- good to have you with us very much my pleasure.
