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Colorado College Economics Professor Daniel Johnson on how he has been able to accurately predict winners in the Olympic games.
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Well they expect to kick off in London next week and one Colorado professor has already placed his bet since 2000.
Economy is Daniel Johnson has predicted Olympic medals within 93% accuracy rate -- the crazy part he uses an economic model.
That doesn't factor -- athletic ability at all how that's possible -- -- Johnson joins us now to explain.
This is -- really fascinating stories to tell me what your model is based on if not athletic ability.
Well Melissa it's based on economics just as you said.
It truly is a mathematical model based on long term.
Averages.
We look at the important macro economic feature is -- each country.
And ask over time what should and nation like combat with that particular income with that particular population.
What should a nation like that win in terms of Olympic gold and Olympic silver bronze so we shocked -- -- put this together it was so accurate cannot be -- Yeah -- -- we were stunned I will be honest we were -- -- me we were looking for maybe some insights that that economics have something to say.
But but to find that it was as accurate as it was was was all frightening -- is like money determines how many metals UN is it that's it all.
-- it's not that simple I mean as as your previous guests -- I mean in any race whether it's political or athletic.
Money doesn't actually buy you success threatening you could spend as much money on me as an athlete as you -- and and I'd never get near the podium.
It it's more about how you spend those dollars but OK but to be sure.
Money is required I mean good training good equipment.
Good facilities good sports management is an essential to success OK so that's -- -- up what's your prediction for these Olympics.
-- prediction is pretty strong for the US side predicts the US to come out on top both in terms of total models and in terms of gold medals -- just edging out China in terms of gold medals.
-- 99 and looking ahead at our screen right now 99 medals overall right and then how to the other -- gets you see China.
Coming in second and Russia than Great Britain I understand that you do you have a factor in -- A home team advantage.
Yeah and that's the single most important factor of the model when a nation hosts.
By and large that means that they when a lot more medals than they would otherwise sin in our case eighteen medals -- home.
So if you such a good way of predicting who's gonna -- -- the Latin battle message that you can go make some money.
No because I enjoy the sport -- -- I mean I watch the Olympics like everyone else does.
I enjoy for that for the spectacle of athletic ability.
I wanna truly be pure in my appreciation they -- does not Obama can't not buying you've got to use this modeling to make money somewhere along the way because I know these are the similar type -- models.
You know that that people create news to trade on Wall Street it's very successful that's what a lot of Quant funds do.
Yours I think -- general predicts unemployment rate.
It had -- -- do you certainly got yeah that's exactly right.
Actually -- to -- totally fair if you wanted to make money predicting Olympic medals yeah I can tell you model that's even better than ours what.
Just predict what every nation did last time that's the single best predictor inertia is a very strong force of the Olympics but.
We feel that that doesn't really explain very much you're successful this time because -- -- -- six successful last time.
While that might be true if it doesn't actually have much economic -- it OK I don't mean to take your model the biggest thanks so much for joining us professors a lot of time.
Entirely my pleasure.
