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Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services, on the geopolitical events that have him feeling bullish in the second half of 2012.
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And it all right stop searching for direction this -- -- -- wrap -- my next guest is bullish for the second half of the year and says investors should expect the rally.
And higher equity prices by year end sounds good joining me now is all of a -- president of Gary Goldberg financial services and all of -- thank you for being here.
This what this is based on you're obviously very.
Bullish for the end of the year but I -- -- know why.
So there's there's five criteria that we're looking at and three of them are happening as we speak we're behind -- collections which are certainly a stumbling block in the second quarter.
And we're seeing Europe getting more proactive in particular Germany in terms of helping its southern neighbors -- You've got the earnings seasons which is under way and we think that analysts and strategists have taken down estimates too much -- going to see upside surprises.
We do think that QE3 is coming probably sometime in August or September.
And ultimately speaking I think investors are getting to a point where the start to pull money out of bond funds are gonna start putting them to equities in particular.
Dividend paying stocks and so we look for rally in those stocks in the second half of the years well there's a big gives him there is the fact that you think Europe is getting its act together because Germany's being more compliant.
But.
There hasn't solved the debt crisis and got a handle on that nearly three years if you're absolutely correct and we're not saying that they're getting their act together -- going to solve all the problems but as opposed to being obstructionist we're seeing Germany and some -- have -- northern countries.
Being more proactive because they realize it's the end of the road right and so that we think is going to make a difference to markets in but some of the guidance was seeing in the earnings reports four Q2.
And predicting somewhat of a weak third and fourth quarter.
Yeah and that's been traditional last couple years all the CEOs and CFOs got -- on their -- for being overly bullish in 20082009.
So I think you're seeing a little bit of cautious and we've observed this in the last few quarters of reporting.
Where -- numbers have come in pretty strongly.
And nonetheless they've given very tepid guidance in terms of what they expect for the rest of the Euro assumption from quarter so we're not laying that much attention to that anymore.
We're looking at the actual sales numbers were looking at weight where they're expanding their businesses are they improving margins and -- so flower thing improving margin.
And they're looking at sales growth and marketshare -- but I.
I get the sense companies are not really investing in the -- -- creating jobs they're not creating jobs but keep in mind for investment perspective that's actually.
A positive if you can get more results -- -- -- existing workforce and therefore drive sales higher.
Drive margins higher without having the additional cost of extra employees.
That's actually -- positive from an investor's perspective it's not what we want -- not good for the economy not good for the economy but you have to discern between the two.
For investment perspective and by the way we're not sitting here with shutters on and and think -- everything is hunky dory.
What we're saying is that we feel that analysts and strategists have taken down estimates too far things aren't as bleak as some are making them out to be.
And so we think of 45% rally from these current levels by year end is very possible.
I hope you right now listened -- about 1015 seconds have we hit the bottom of the housing slump.
It appears to be certainly you if you look at the housing report lower sales but higher prices yeah that's a pretty pretty good indication I wouldn't expect her to be a rally in housing any time pseudo.
All right very good -- of a -- thank you so much for -- thank you get it very bullish until.
