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Endless quest to make our waist lines -- near while the weight loss industry makes their pockets fatter.
The FDA has only approved two diet drug the last decade or -- step pattern and its ally -- that went.
And -- -- so the excitement over the approval of the latest week -- drug.
-- -- Is understandable this could be a money making machine for -- maker Davis and with me now to crunch the numbers is doctor.
A vital spring technology fact -- thanks for joining us tonight.
Thanks for having me back so what about this drug I mean it is this a huge breakthrough.
A huge -- breakthrough because you -- up until now there haven't been a lot of choices available for people that are obese surgery is not an easy option.
So the fact that there is something out there that at least looks promising -- all of the -- so far I think it's a big deal the impact is you know.
Of obesity from an economic standpoint.
You know by 2030.
If we don't do any thing about 50% of adults are text of the going to be -- -- That congress all that's exactly that's one point five billion overweight people in the world right now.
500 million of them are considered obese what should think that this drug might work and what are what are the potential side effects what -- you Hertz apart.
Well we've heard so far is that it can work and the recommendation is that for somebody of a BMI.
Of 27 or higher.
With some other co morbidity co morbid condition like high blood pressure -- diabetes.
-- is the indication.
There's always that fear.
The side effects related to the heart bomb and that's something that everybody is always a little bit Leary.
Because this medication is a combination of an appetite suppressant.
Plus another chemical that's typically used to treat migraines so.
They do have effects on the circulatory system.
The cardiac system so.
But doesn't -- in the week -- really bad for your heart as well so I mean the only things that you have to wait together.
We think in -- in terms of dollars how big of a Blockbuster do you think this could be.
Because I just about a drug like -- which did really well you know -- did a hundred.
84 million in sales in 2007 -- than it -- down in 2008 to about.
Half that now.
You know it seems like a drug that was very popular but kind of petered out is that what generally happens.
Well you know in this case so for insurance is not gonna cover it.
And so the push is to get employers and insurance companies.
It's a start covering it the second thing is Melissa is if you look at.
The demographics of people that are typically -- obese.
And you look at the correlation it's typically.
The lower social economic part of all our economy.
And our demographics that are dealing with obesity so it's to people that may not necessarily be able to pay cap short.
At the same time I mean the company's got to make money they put so much money into developing this drug they've got to make it back that's what their shareholders want to hear.
The CEO was on in the last hour with Liz claimant.
Let's play a little bit about.
Pharmaceutical industry -- Blockbuster drug is -- that -- a billion or more.
Will this be that.
Yeah well when you think about about a 108 million American adults who are overweight obese that could potentially be.
Patience for this therapy.
Certainly we're talking about very very significant.
Product sales potential.
So you know heating heating -- what she said you know he basically said he hopes he thinks it's on track to make a billion dollars it's important remember we want these drugs to be cheap so that people can use them.
There have to be a financial reward -- drugs aren't gonna at companies are going to invest.
And developing them -- -- how much money.
The take to develop a drug like that's how they've probably spent hundreds of millions of dollars -- -- they have -- taken about ten years in development to get it to where this point that to this point.
Let alone the whole approval process for the FDA so it's a big deal and if you know they're banking on that 108 million folks who are potentially the target market and the interesting thing is is that.
You know obesity.
Is technically defined above a BMI -- body mass index of thirty.
-- using our criteria 27.
Which means that you know that's people that are overweight but not really obese.
So what they're telling people is that they think the market is much larger in terms of their projections but.
I come back to the earlier point that if somebody can't afford it.
And that's typically the people who -- affected by obesity and some other complications.
Well then you're really not offering it to those people that really need it then.
All we got to make a long term impact down in the overall economics of obesity I haven't really going to be out.
They've got to make money or obstacle never on the business of developing drugs -- is the back and forth we out of pharmaceuticals all the time thank you so much already and yeah absolutely have to thank you so much for your insight exciting.
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