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Well Colleen lows in treasuries this stage these days sure is a risky business the ten year yield is really an uncharted -- let's not a historic low but it's.
It's about as low as we've seen quite a while below one point 49%.
Our next guest says he sees yields moving even lower from here.
Harry -- -- author of the crash ahead and founder and CEO of HS stent and economic research and forecasting company -- Great to have you on the program so let me ask you this with stocks in rally mode today we're still not seeing yields.
Rise significantly is that is that it -- telling -- you look at the yield it is a broader message on the case for the forecast for the US economy.
We know though the world is slowing and and investors are rushing into.
Treasury bonds as if they were safe -- they're not anymore not in Germany UK -- US.
So I -- yields going down is really a sign of a weakening world economy and I think you're gonna see stocks.
Go down here pretty soon I think bond yields are gonna go even lower in the next couple months.
We have treasury yields ten year treasuries have been trading in a channel since 1989 when you get to the bottom that channeling yields -- sell bonds when you get to the top.
You buy them and hope Rachel go down again last time we at the bottom the channel was 2% yield in December.
Of of 2008 that was a great time to sell bonds interest rates went up from 2% to 4% very quickly.
Now we're nearing -- bottom again now it's lower.
It's is that -- hits about one point 2% one point 3% -- and I want -- -- We're gonna be -- -- to sell bonds.
So one point -- one point 3% that's the bottom.
On the ten year yield it's interesting that yields today are lower than they were right shortly before the financial crisis I mean that's telling.
Yeah it is an -- this is the lowest they've been since the Great Depression in the 1930 so it's also a sign of a deflationary environment again.
We caution bondholders.
If treasury yields go up corporate -- -- go up even more and junk bonds even more so bonds are kind of like the last bubble here people of -- watching.
Away from stocks and commodities and a bond so so this is getting -- but again.
I wouldn't sell those bonds yet and they get a little lower than yes.
OK so the bond bears are holding Natalie that's it here.
Let me ask you about the Federal Reserve and quantitative easing I know you're on the record.
So many people are we heard from you know Ron Paul.
It really -- drilling Bernanke as expected in in his state to testimony today.
The markets are clamoring for another round of QE2 gets and that might be part of the recent -- rally today yet.
It hasn't really done much to boost the economy.
We know it has prevented.
Big meltdown in the financial system so that's true but it's a sign of desperation that time and time again the Fed have to come -- and inject.
Hundreds of billions of dollars an economy in Europe's doing even more so so we're saying look.
The whole world is fighting the demographics like baby boomers are done spending this economy's not gonna come back.
-- is collapsing around the world China's next that's not gonna come back so so Bernanke's fighting a losing battle -- only does is keep the things from melting down but at some point -- gonna work so again.
But that's why we wrote the book the great crash -- we think a big crash in stocks is coming like 20089.
Only more so between late this year in 2013 or fourteen so investors really need to worry the Fed.
By pushing this money into the system banking system is only creating a -- When stocks and commodities commodities are already fault or is it going to be a single catalyst I mean there's so many things percolating out there you can talk about the economy Harry falling into this fiscal cliff off this fiscal -- -- got the situation -- a slowing China.
Is it one single and that I mean our our economy have to be so vulnerable to an unforced -- geo political.
Issue right now.
-- it is we -- was so much stimulus beyond -- like blowing up a balloon has got a pop at some point I think it starts with Europe.
Spain is is what breaks Europe's back because Spain has a very deep real estate bubble and crash that you cannot stimulate your way out of it and and demand.
For thirty year olds buying houses and Spain's gonna fall for decades or so there's no way to turn around that economy.
I think it starts with Europe spreads to US and -- one have to get hit is China because China's got an unbelievable.
Real estate bubble beyond.
President anywhere in the world and when not -- -- that brings Third World countries down and commodities so we see accountable worldwide crash.
And yes the US started the last crash with sub prime Europe starts the next one.
All right -- -- with his.
Glass half empty Britain and outlook but -- appreciate your candor Harry is very -- -- -- thank you so.
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