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Raymond James/Morgan Keegan fixed income capital markets President Kevin Giddis on the 10-year Treasury yield.
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Take a look at the yield on the ten year treasury day.
One point 44%.
Is nothing to laugh about but how much lower -- Yields -- how much more can prices in treasuries rally from these levels Raymond James Morgan Keegan had a fixed income -- -- -- Is joining us now from Memphis Tennessee -- Kevin what do you tell -- which can you.
Reasonably why at ten year at these levels and not lose your shirt to send me on hold -- to -- today.
No that's that kind of the dynamic -- -- right now and it's likely continue for quite some time if you look at.
Kind of the three big global economic issues that there's the US economy very weakened -- you know at best -- a slow growth pattern.
To Europe in the eurozone there -- kind of taken their sweet time and fixing.
The eurozone but to the banks into the country's austerity programs and then three China which is kinda the latest bit of information.
-- as China's growth rate slows and we can tell by exports said their exports and in our imports.
Then that's gonna put more more pressure.
So when you look at where treasuries are now -- you know at -- 144 doesn't provide you know real value with you compare -- against inflation.
But we look at the other scenarios out there there's just been a flight to quality bid and a risk off trade.
Which could take this thing all the way down to you know one and a quarter percent pretty easily and probably the thirty year to two and three -- and -- it -- before the end of the summer.
Which -- what would force really quickly can -- yields backed up significantly.
Higher are what one of these economies going gangbusters.
Yeah I think you know -- in the US it certainly centers around jobs and housing so if you saw a big surge in employment.
We have roughly two employment report before the Fed next meets in September.
And so if they're contemplating QE3 if you got some big surge is.
200 plus 250000 plus in jobs that she would.
-- probably turn the -- a little bit I think that the market would love to take yields higher but the conditions just aren't great the other be the eurozone if there's real world through the year -- You could probably see -- another fifty basis points up.
Right and I'm gonna and grow off -- on Kevin thank you can disappeared Gary Davis Raymond James -- okay thank you.
