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Author Gordon Chang argues China’s economy may see negative growth in the next quarter and Asia is in an economic crisis.
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China's economy clearly slowing from Maria Wen Jiabao says the economy is not showing momentum.
Gordon Chang joins us now -- you've been predicting for some time.
And shop reversal -- -- -- -- -- recession basically.
They say they're growing seven point 6% and use.
When in the quarter to two.
That's probably zero may be negative one possibly plus one.
By far the most reliable indicator of Chinese economic activity is some production of electricity in April it was up zero point seven may.
Up two point 7 June down about 1% and because the growth electricity historically out -- the growth of the underlying economy that means China had to be at zero or worse.
Also this is confirmed when you look at the manufacturing surveys in the price indices and -- -- Chinese analysts are now talking about the heart attack economy.
If they've really reduced to zero dead flat if -- -- -- the case.
That's gonna have a profound effect on the -- is -- around the world because -- -- and they will the engine of growth will let China's problem is because they're not exporting.
-- Europe's problems sort of shop in China September and October of last year.
Our retail sales are doubt that's gonna affect China.
You know.
China it was really sort of self contained in -- sense because they haven't really developed a consumption based economy when they do that they would really affect us now -- a report that that putting wages up in China.
And that will compensate for the slow economy because it will stimulate domestic demand you agree -- that.
Maybe a little bit but not that much the reason why wages are going up in China's because the workforce -- starting to level off.
Depending on the demographer you talk to between 2013 -- one -- sixteen.
The workforce will peak probably towards the front end of that range because demographic trends in China are accelerating.
That's really what's driving this nothing.
Not really consumption related policies if they really are zero growth -- dead dead flat you think there's a good chance they slip into an actual recession contract.
-- it's -- -- -- -- been predicting that third quarter.
-- -- the real problem is third quarters that the premier you just mentioned.
Doesn't really have a plan to deal -- they're going through this political transition in China.
Which is preventing the premier from taking the actions that are really necessary to get the Chinese economy jump started.
-- this is an economy that goes up.
When the government -- a lot of money into it does other things.
And right now the political paralysis in Beijing really means that their career is not able to deal with the problems to -- China's so big.
And America's bacon in decline and an additional shrinking but it certainly going slow road you think we're -- worldwide slump on one's definitely you know you got European got China.
And we -- just sort of going to be okay.
I mean for 23 years down the future I would think that will be poorer than we are today but on a relative basis will be better off because -- will be in crisis as well as Asia.
Asia in crisis definite real crisis because you know it's it's really been based on China of these countries around China's periphery -- tied their economy to the Chinese one.
And the Chinese one is having all sorts of problems and it's not just Europe in the United States it's also the internal contradictions in China itself.
All the bad trends are happening at the same time and what really propelled three decades of economic growth those reasons either no longer exist or disappearing fast you know we hope -- wrong humanize them.
Mostly Gordon Chang always a pleasure thanks for joining so thank you and -- --
