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Evercore Partners Managing Director Doug Arthur on how investors can gain from political spending.
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Romney releasing a new political TV ad attacking President Obama today political ad spending this cycle.
Estimated to reach nine point eight billion dollars at the 60%.
Jump from the 2010.
Elections did well we've got one analyst who says look investors can make money -- political -- -- boom by investing in small lot media companies.
-- off of managing director it to Evercore Partners here to give us his picks.
You know I always thought candidates when it -- of that of the largest audience so when you going for smaller media companies you off to a specific type of voter is that the theory.
Well I think in terms of the presidential campaign it's all that the swing states rights -- right -- so there's a certain.
You know natural concentration of spending based on the biggest bang for the buck.
-- know local news is a big draw of firms -- audience and the local TV stations dominant local news.
Typically about 50%.
AME you do if you take the -- for Al numbers of nine point 8000000060%.
To -- you about half and that's going to be local.
Well that's what I want to know how an investor can make money unless.
Well I I think political ad spending as a double edged sword for investors because at the end of the day what what what.
Investor wants to see is growth in the core business so in the second half of 2000 drug you've got Olympics.
Starting jointly six on NBC.
-- going to be a big blip for like a net which is got twelve NBC stations.
And they recently raised their guidance on an Olympic spending -- the last you know summer games and then you've got political hitting.
It late in -- year now political -- concentrated not only by state but -- timing about you know.
5060% of political will be in the last six to eight weeks going into the elections.
So so it at the ended the day investors wanna see core growth -- We -- finance my restaurants -- strong as well that's been a little bit dodge here in 2000 airline has to be a one off sort of another -- -- this is gonna be a boom -- based on the numbers we would just quoting a huge increase.
Mr.
Romney has lots of money and present a bombers.
Raising a fair amount to so it should be a boon.
For the media company yeah I -- I think that you can't say while -- basically it's a mid term every other year.
For your cycle for presidential.
The long term trend in political is up some of that so a lot of that goes back to the Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United 2010 which essentially.
Allowed on restricted spending by corporations and unions of -- As long as -- wasn't specifically to directed at a candidates that's really opened up -- -- gets awards were scenic one big time let's talk regionally.
What states do you think we'll see a big bump up.
Well Florida's a big guy you know -- swing state Ohio is a big swing state Missouri somewhat -- Nevada.
So if you look at a Sinclair which we are recommending that lot of fox stations.
They they've got significant representation in the swing states -- -- got stations and all the major swing state so.
It's going to be concentrated perhaps more so than ever before because of the do you like the most -- guy overweights on -- and Sinclair.
And I you know indication -- -- you've got the Olympic.
Right up push coming on NBC that's going to be huge for them than they typically garner a 190.
To a hundred million dollars in incremental spending that's going to be up.
Most likely strongly over 08 and and certainly over -- what.
The guy that bad just what could questions -- -- caught my eye was the fact that you said that spending increased after Romney became.
The presumptive nominee.
Yeah I mean I don't really have any particular insight on that just seem glad reading a report said -- I know in the case -- -- that.
They were in New York recently meeting with analysts and they said they saw a big surge in spending -- in June so it seemed like once the race crystallize around two.
Candidates and particularly on the Republican side the spending really picked up and I think the partisan nature of this race is -- only accelerated.
Not any Doug Arthur Evercore Partners thank you very much for joining us on that you love interest.
