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Pento Portfolio Strategies President Michael Pento and Trean Group Senior V.P. Scott Shellady on the outlook for the economy and its impact on the mar...
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-- doldrums let's bring in Michael up -- into the discussion.
You know Michael -- seems to me that we're really stuck right now between economic data -- week.
But not weekend off for the Fed to do something in the meantime we just continue to drift.
I don't see much way -- -- in those -- -- -- -- Well first of all the economic -- was very weak if you look at the jobless claims this morning and you look at the unadjusted data we actually saw a rise of seventy.
Thousand claims there's some shenanigans with the layoffs were the -- for the GM workers.
But the -- -- data shows that unemployment claims actually increased by 7000 I don't how how the Labor Department managed to get that.
To a drop of 26000.
Claims let's talk about the S&P 500 earnings look.
The largest economy on the planet is EU 27 they are in a recession that's brought down emerging market growth rates.
Brazil Russia India China very growth rates have all contracted significantly.
I'm looking at 96 dollars earnings for 2012.
You want to put a thirteen multiple on that.
You get well forty but that's a lot of are headed and the only thing that's gonna save us I'm hearing from you guys is -- the holy thing we can hope war is more.
Quantitative counterfeiting other part of Ben Bernanke and that is only going to wreck the economy and personnel are asset price first of all that -- We're not saying that the only thing that will save us market forces indicate that that's what they want were absolutely not saying that that's what.
Should definitely be there but us as weak -- not.
-- gotta fight with Michael would have been an area that we value well but it's important point out there's still money to be made what are you telling your clients group putting your client's money right.
Well -- right now are at about 40% cash -- the portfolio strategies we have some.
And we have mutual fund that puts us.
Exposure towards -- usual Bob -- have you hiding behind what John just when it just one San Bernardino it's going bankrupt talk about your theory about that you are contrary handbook but I have a very lose lose hope allegations in these will bonds I have a high dividend.
Each DV which is paying about 2.5 percent.
I'm writing covered calls on some of gold strategies were very very conservative here.
Look the fact is that we are going into a deflationary depression is market.
Forces and I'm so glad to hear it was you know I love you very much I wanna I -- apparently argument anybody if you are better very affable individual.
As united as you know but little if market forces are allowed to work we're headed for a deflationary depression.
And I'm hearing a look let's let's look at -- would Mario Draghi did over in the ECB he stopped paying interest.
On excess reserves we saw about 480.
Billion euros come out of those deposits -- -- CB.
They're headed right towards this distressed sovereign debt I think Bernanke's and do something very similar to that and guess what if he does that.
I'm not saying the market's gonna go down I think DS and he can hit fourteen don't want -- -- does that but the economy is still going to this.
-- Michael let me just jumping right now perfectly way to prosperity candidacy right now what you mentioned EU 27 that's about 50% of global GDP -- in a slowdown in China Scott.
And really no matter what happens here is out of our hands is it not.
We'll have gone -- it's gonna -- Me yes now yes it is not a very it is out of our hands you know what.
All you have to do is take a step back and look at a common sense cleats in 2008 week we caught our banking cold yeah China -- try to -- us out.
Now we've got you're going through their called and it remember they went cap in hand and China -- in -- -- money and it didn't happen well now China is starting to -- -- called.
And when -- go down and they will suffer the same problems the western -- and suffered.
-- there is nobody there to accept -- night.
So we need true growth.
But we're not gonna get -- growth until the government goes through austerity unless the private sector doing it needs to do.
We don't need to be -- austerity -- the private sector not government it is because -- want it has to be the other way around and that's what's gonna get us out of this problem.
OK let me just finally finish by saying this Michael is that I read David Rosenberg plus -- -- all the time and today he said virtually every region say China is in the loss column.
Do you see any points on the planet where you say that's a country to invest in right now because they're doing things right.
Well I I tend to gravitate toward Singapore Canada with a lot of commodity car currency countries but only in till I see.
We moving towards a direction where Bernanke and he will do this he will find a way to -- the dollar.
Even against the horrific Euro when he does that does that then the risk trade is back on you gotta buy gold precious metals and and agricultural commodities and energy.
Michael pent up -- portfolio strategies we looked at tussle with -- And I Scott -- lady we're gonna see you Scott in just a few minutes -- the S&P futures closed.
