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Barclays geopolitical strategist Helima Croft and FOX News national security analyst KT McFarland discuss Iran, the oil markets and the threat of nucl...
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News alert oriented -- Department of Defense report shows that Iran is improving accuracy of its long range missiles.
Adding to the belief that Iran is only using talks with the west.
To stall -- croft is the senior geopolitical strategist for Barclays.
And had another one of my favorite people on the planet KT McFarland is also here former deputy assistant secretary of defense and -- Fox News contributor.
Welcome to both of UKT to start with you first.
This is one of the three critical piece is that Iran needs to put together to seriously have.
Nuclear weapons how much does this concern you you.
Yeah I it's very concerning Iraq needs three things for a nuclear weapon -- rightly pointed out it needs enriched uranium we know they're rich in uranium.
It -- a long range missile capable of carrying a nuclear bomb.
And the third thing it needs is the blueprint we don't know how far along they are in the blueprint we think they're pretty far along.
But we see even -- the missiles even last week they tested a missile that can go to 12100 miles so they are getting to the point the -- to do list for nuclear weapons.
They're working their way down.
How long is -- going to take them to have a deliverable nuclear weapon.
Estimates vary but some experts think it's anywhere between now and the next two or three years.
Nobody's talking ten years everybody's talking about the next within the next two or three years so -- that begs the question what do we do how do you stop -- Jim -- Iran -- -- -- get the or is there -- third way.
Outlook and a -- -- it is the market.
Our Iran's intentions Iran's capabilities is this is the oil market doing so as well absolutely I think since negotiations resumed with the the oil market really believes that the situation -- -- for this year -- military action is not on the table.
But we're gonna get some type of softer landing -- -- the Iran situation.
So I think political risk premium is really evaporated -- -- -- markets and it could get a nasty shock come the fall when people become you know where the back and negotiations are going nowhere.
-- -- and I were talking about this Kati and the break that -- Iran's oil output though has fallen to a twenty year low.
Yes it does seem that sanctions are working do you believe that did that additional sanctions.
Could put a stop this and at -- potentially we would avoid any kind of military action.
Yeah probably sanctions that is has always been the problem how do you cause enough sanctions on Iran to make it really really really hurt.
To the point where they change their behavior.
But at the same time you don't destroy the world oil market or you don't take the world economic recovery and put it into reverse.
The sanctions that we have imposed in the last two or three weeks are biting they are having a difference they are clearly having a difference on the Iranian behavior we've seen.
Allowed the bravado that had in the last two which is an indication that big currency in Iran has fallen by 50% inflation is up 30%.
The question is can you push it further.
How much further you have to question before the Iranian leadership realizes.
-- we don't give our our next -- -- And I think we've got a ways to go I'm on favour of really putting these sanctions on steroids having them be immediate and devastating.
And to the point where really crashes the currency of Iran and then you have a change of behavior.
Will it change behavior.
I'm not sure and -- we look Iran they have an incentive right now try to get oil prices back up.
Because you know they're lost about a million barrels of exports and prices Italy slip in the past couple months so my concern is do we see some type of Iran in action.
Particularly in another golf state that the large Shiite population some type of incident on energy facility that potentially sends prices back up.
I'm not sure the Iranians -- gonna sit back and taken I think oil potentially is -- weapon of mass destruction.
Final word UK take.
Well I think you're right -- -- -- -- -- Iran -- -- want to provoke anything to the point where they have military action against them.
I think also were they don't -- whether Israel decides to attack Iran.
In a preemptive strike at Iran retaliates and then brings the United States into it.
Nobody wants a war in the Middle East the question is who can have economic warfare to the point of change in Iran's behavior and I think -- that's right.
It's gotta be a lot worse than it is now before the Iranian regime changes its mind.
Ladies it was terrific to see both of you Halim croft and KT McFarland but that the take away from this says.
The west and oil market right now are underestimating what is going on with Iran and the importance and potential of that threat thank you ladies so much please come back.
