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How Accurate are Political Polls?

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  • Description

    FBN’s Lou Dobbs on the biases in various Presidential race polls.

  • Duration 3:39
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This transcript is automatically generated

Eighteen days to Election Day 119.

New poll showing the president and governor Romney essentially deadlocked.

The new Washington Post ABC news poll expect as Obama and Romney I each with 47%.

47%.

Of peace I mean that's.

That's all and -- -- basically where they've been for the past month despite last Friday's dismal jobs report by the way the Supreme Court decision upholding obamacare.

And the Supreme Court knocking down Arizona's anti illegal immigration -- and oh yes we can't forget.

Congress' vote to hold attorney general holder in both civil and -- And -- contempt of congress she would be forgiven if you thought any one of those developments I think might swing this race in one direction or the other.

But this new post ABC news poll shows clearly know they're tied -- what really is going on.

Everyone loves to complain about these polls so let's talk a little methodology and sampling -- well.

Some are criticizing the Washington Post ABC survey of having.

Political skewed sample of voters since it assumes that 24%.

Of voters -- 4% of the voters.

Our Republican.

Now you're probably thinking that's a little spinning in your right.

The actual numbers considerably higher the pew research center for example puts the number at 28%.

Of Americans.

Who identified themselves.

-- -- So that has quite an impact Washington Post poll however isn't the only survey were contacts.

Context matters.

And work context is being -- a little differently.

Take the USA today Gallup poll for example of twelve battleground states -- was released yesterday we told you about that.

First are they're really just twelve swing states what's the deal is it ten is at twelve is it five or what's the number.

Last week you might remember it was Romney who had a slight edge in fifteen battleground states.

That according to an opinion research poll but now USA today Gallup finds President Obama with a slight lead in those battleground states.

47.

-- remember they're tied up pier 4747%.

To 47.

But here Obama is ahead.

4745.

In the battleground states where they too.

Point -- So what the poll -- fails to mention is -- President Obama.

Isn't -- -- nearly so well -- he did back in 2008 back then President Obama won those critical swing states over Senator John McCain.

-- had a nine point margin.

A two point lead over Romney actually -- kind of -- doesn't.

By the way there are claims of bias from both sides in this deal.

A Huffington Post columnist last month criticized Gallup saying jobs under sampling non -- and is biased against President Obama.

Interestingly -- latest head to head match up puts us right back where we started.

Showing Obama and Romney in a dead heat each.

Each and apple.

46%.

Of the vote among registered voters so.

There -- we're gonna go with 46% tied because it's the most recent.

We'll be watching the samples along -- -- the methodology and we'll help all of our friends in the unbiased national media.

Keep the presidential story.

Story.

It's good to help out a campaign like.

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