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Hennion & Walsh Asset Management CIO Kevin Mahn on how tax hikes and the health-care law will impact small-business confidence and the economy.
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-- -- the latest NFIB survey today that.
He's a gauge of small business confidence in a surprise in this economy it is fading and that of course on the -- the president's plan to raise taxes on the wealthy.
Let's talk about how this impacts the markets with Kevin -- he's president of -- lost asset management Kevin great to have you back on the show little or no business confidence is highly correlated -- BS and 500.
So with what I just describe how do you see this impacting the markets here in.
-- it's no surprise where that small business confidence is waning we look at the effects of obamacare and the likelihood of smokers have to spend more the likelihood of his new tax plan or.
Tax cuts if you -- while maintaining existing taxes but raising them on people earning more than 250000.
That affects a lot of pass through corporations were small -- -- That's can erode their confidence and what's gonna happen as a result they're not gonna hire more people they're not gonna take out loans are not gonna spend money.
And those three things we need to have this economic recovery continue is.
There a quantitative.
Impact in terms of how you're looking at the overall market performance what's -- S&P outlook have you bring it in just in recent weeks.
I think we're gonna be range bound for a period of time I think now -- national conventions start in July and orders for the Republicans and Democrats people going to be sitting on the sidelines for a large part.
And riding this -- we stop the dark cloud of -- penny over us.
We -- the potential for a bit of the fiscal debt -- to fuel coming up.
And the possibility that more tax -- increases are on the way -- that the markets are gonna be.
Peaks and valleys throughout footprints -- for many even depend on earnings to pull us through right now because the second quarter at least the expectation is not that -- Although that creates the possibility of some positive earnings surprises what do we see from Alcoa yes -- -- beat by a penny because a lot of panel's revisions have come down word.
So that -- the possibility for some positive surprise I don't think we're gonna get them.
But that possibility exists positive surprise in terms of trading action -- -- are treated like right well how do you how to position yourself this -- if I have to look at a Barbell strategy I'd like to kind of when we have a dynamic sector trust took some assist have some -- consumer discretionary some consumer Staples.
Where we like right now -- -- rates.
Mortgage related reits and health care related -- we think that they could dividends they've outperformed the S&P 500 by two times thus far this year we think there's a lot of upside.
Having a great friend actually has been stricken now Cecil -- backing -- short statement.
