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Heritage Capital president Paul Schatz gives his outlook for earnings and the markets
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Market earning season is upon its corporate outlook.
In the most they argue most negative in years but my next guest says the market is pricing it in and we may actually see since -- rate.
Over the summer joining me now is Paul Schatz president.
Of heritage capital Paul it's great to have you back on the show before at its earnings outlook -- for your impressions of the president and his tax policy and it's.
Potential impact on the markets and investors.
I think it has actually no impact on investors I think that.
He said nothing you mean to -- that similar note -- speech in Ohio were to -- eleven minutes to mention the word jobs.
Today it would -- another campaign speech I think the market -- discount.
Any any and all presidential speeches where it's nothing more than a veiled you know campaign -- for November is nothing new here.
I and I agree we'll release that are already if we raise taxes -- -- economy is growing under 2%.
If you raise taxes and it teetering economy you can fall back into recession that's economics 101.
This idea that.
To compared to what happened during Bill Clinton's years is absurd GDP was going for 56 -- 7%.
To shave half of 1% off back then -- move the needle.
So why then are the market selling off today is it because of the explanation you just gave were also on the heels of the new earnings season.
We've got problems continuing out of Europe how do you see it.
Yes yes and yet and I -- And you get you and -- -- the hangover from the jobs data Friday after it wasn't awful data but frankly it out already possible pointing again and what what what we're stuck in that we're slogging through this what I think will be a plus 101000 month to a plus.
175200000.
For the next four job reports leading into the election.
-- it's not awful awful news but frankly we're not keeping up with the pace of the population growth therefore we're actually.
Quietly sliding backward something's gotta change.
So somebody was quoted this morning in analysts saying that corporate earnings -- the pillar of straight.
For the stock market but now it's starting to crack.
So does this change your S&P outlook for the duration of the year what are you expecting the Dow courses up like four and a half percent so far this year.
It doesn't change look -- the one quarter ago we -- on record earnings and now we've get your -- earnings are gonna fall.
This is somewhat normal -- -- except in 2008.
For what happens during an election year we have an early first quarter rally we have a springtime -- we saw that in June.
We have some strength in the summer and in the have a little more to sell off -- -- September October I think this is all kind of very normal volatility is less than historical standards.
And it certainly quite apparent the last two years so.
Not I think would that would that the the June lows and the early April highs are in weren't we're in a range bound market we -- -- to strengthen this summer but I think there was the real opportunities coming in the fall we're gonna see a false wound.
But probably below the June lows and that that's repeat you can really pick up some bargains right now I think get -- a more nimble part I'm taking -- rest of the summer off.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Thank you expect.
