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All right our headline another -- jobs report for the month of June our next guest says we NAFTA -- used to the slow growth going forward joining us now is John Silvia wells on the chief economist.
-- wonderful to have you on the show so give us your take on the jobs report the title of your note after the report's release.
Modest gains consistent with slower second quarter growth -- basic message.
The pace of real job growth has slowed slowed from an all -- slow pace this is not looking good.
I've known not as I like you segment before about unite his skepticism about the economy accelerating now we see.
-- about one and a half to 2%.
I think it last -- job number of cut caught everybody by surprise -- tens of evidence that it was a one month deal but now.
You've got several months and -- always slower economic well.
I think at ties also also -- -- retail sales -- Because what we're seeing here in terms of job growth and income growth is very modest at -- And once again forcing a lot of people who we think they know what is the pace of consumer spending and retail sales going -- it.
I think again one out the 2% growth as our outlook for the second half of the share.
What and a half is pretty bleak I mean is that a downgrade from where you were -- is that what you're seeing.
For the fourth quarter are all of next year.
I know it's actually not a downgrade -- a real confirmation of what we had -- -- monthly forecast.
Last month and I think next week when we do it again.
It'll be pretty much the same -- and I I think that's the challenge to many people.
Who had expected acceleration in the second half of the year.
Perhaps an expected stronger back to school sales pick up in the American consumer and certainly in the job market I don't think we're safe and that I think we've seen slow growth.
-- modest pace -- -- and real challenge to the American psyche about where the economy goes longer term.
The message from the markets is that we're not going to get any more easing from the Federal Reserve at least not in the near term John.
What TC shaking -- out of the slump if anything at all how what's the timeframe here for this lackluster growth.
Well I would suspect that we probably get this through the next six months -- south.
I think -- as the big change -- to come with some decision with respect to the fiscal cleft.
I think that's probably the only thing short term that are really get the economy going going clear out.
A lot of this uncertainty about fiscal policy.
At towards the end of the year the debt ceiling.
You know all those issues that we clear that set it aside for awhile we'll probably have some better visibility -- -- going forward.
But right now there really isn't that a short term fiscal and monetary fix -- what's.
The economy is still working for -- -- we can go even higher.
Well 'cause you know lie -- the aspects of getting the lower on -- our rates in the last year and a half.
Has been to decline in the participation right.
If we wanted to say.
A lot of work decided to come back into the label for us operatives of patient -- and actually rise and therefore given the slow job growth.
Even a rise in the and -- right.
I don't know it's much of a case but maybe eight point three.
Is enough but you know at this point -- Eight point two it was a pretty psychological.
Pretty strong psychological barrier to the American consumer industrial got to get past this election season I think John Thain.
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