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IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh weighs in on the unemployment rate and economy.
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Our first guest is not surprised by the disappointing report but he says the recovery isn't taking a step back but just actually in this -- pattern.
Joining us out now and then around this IHS -- economists Nan and thanks for being here.
We're not come back -- -- got -- manufacturing numbers we have this fiscal clip -- debt ceiling debate coming up.
Export orders fell I mean it just seems like we've got a lot of bad economic data and that's not backwards to you.
It's not in the sense that most of the troubles are outside the US if you look at just what's gonna going on in the US itself.
We're growing at about a 2% pace that seems to be holding up.
This number that we got today on the jobs picture not grades.
Not horrible but not great either it's consistent -- -- 2% economy.
Nothing suggests we're gonna see a lot more weakness than that we may have a weak second quarter which is already sort of history.
Maybe one and a half percent but by the second half of the year watching do a little bit better maybe up to around two map percent.
So we're stock in this zone if you will this -- -- holding pattern -- he's sad.
But I don't see it getting my towards unless.
You know we have a meltdown in Europe or -- -- -- you know oil prices -- because of a war with Iran.
Obviously those things could kill this recovery but barring that I don't see a double dip bicycle.
To basically you're saying the external forces which none of us can control can really set -- over the cliff but they sound where we are right now.
Was -- jobs number bad enough dare I say in order to get the Fed -- Get up -- button do some -- But up.
Max re putting that -- I don't think it's bad enough yes.
I don't think -- -- -- pulled the trigger up at at this meeting at the end of this month.
But I think if -- increases this -- number increases the probability.
That between now the end of the year the Fed will probably do.
QE3 I think I think that that it's sort of in the cards now that given -- these weak numbers and given the fact that the next few months.
The numbers -- -- week.
Today thing in the jobs report today do you end -- glimmer of hope.
While the hours numbers were OK they went up attack be the earnings numbers are up attack.
All this suggests we're not in a recessionary environment not even close.
But that's about the only thing -- only come -- you can take from these numbers as their hours and earnings.
Right because you know the goods producing sector only came up with thirteen thousand jobs in two thirds of the jobs produced were temporary.
And I know a lot of people like to think that those temporary jobs.
Become full time but we -- really been seeing that trend happily.
We haven't and I think this is symptomatic to me the extreme caution on the part of a lot of businesses that very worried there's a lot of uncertainty out there about Europe.
About China about the fiscal -- -- so that being very cautious in this sort of temporary employment story is very much part and parcel of that.
Let's talk about China because even their numbers are coming down we did see that they cut rates again maybe that'll help a little but as far as they're manufacturing.
They're struggling as well that's gonna play here at home is -- It will although.
Our exposure to China in terms of our exports to China they're not that big -- that.
We export about 2% of our GDP to China.
Compare that with consumer spending which is 70% of the economy -- fairly small -- But still it's there and certain companies and certain sectors are more exposed than others obviously up.
So China's big deal but it's especially a big deal.
But commodity exporting companies are commodity exporting countries they're the ones getting hit the hardest had to show our.
Narron Ravitz thank you so much for being -- -- --
