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Moody’s Chief Economist John Lonski and Larry McDonald, author of “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense,” give their predictions for Friday’s jo...
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Disability insurance payments and -- a record eight point seven million people tough disability payments over the past month.
A number that exceed the entire population in New York Satan.
By more than.
Well joining me now I have John loves you chief economist for -- capital markets and new -- senior director Larry McDonnell is also author of the book at a loss or.
A colossal failure of common sense -- -- congratulations on out by the way.
We can't talk about the jobs over guys I mean come on let's first talk about what we're expecting tomorrow Larry.
You know anything below a hundred.
Thousand seems to me to be a failure on the jobs front what do you think we're gonna.
Well oiled the last sixty days oil is off about 30% so there's just instantaneous.
Amount of capital that's immediately.
In the consumers' hands that it wasn't in the consumers' hands naming ninety days there weren't so they are shopping -- tell stories now well.
It's I just think that the -- of the date you're gonna get some positive.
Results in the labor market from that.
30% in -- is just the big big positive aren't telling effect.
-- -- grand scheme of things even if we grow payrolls by a 150000.
Jobs in the month of June we're still gonna flying.
That we have nearly five million jobs you were today.
Then we did.
At the start of 2008.
And that is not good and you're talking about declining incomes -- -- this.
In the grand total of -- -- come now rose by just over 3% annually.
That's indicative of a weak labor market it and also tells me that regardless of what's going on with a price of gasoline.
Consumer spending is going nowhere.
If you what you were referred to so one important the second quarter retail chain sales.
Up two point 6% year over year the worst quarter -- current recovery.
They grew by six point 6% the first quarter and 9% second quarter of 2011.
Were going backwards.
Well let me all of this and there's there's certainly a lot of worries spur for Americans out there and you talked a lot about the fiscal let the -- approaching you've obviously got an employment situation.
Makes people nervous they don't want to spend as well that hurts the economy and and that it's a vicious circle because companies don't have any growth prospects they don't hire.
Really we need to see.
Even -- -- 34000 on a four week moving average for initial and you know unemployment claims.
That would better than what we've got right now.
Yeah well I talk what this -- book in 20052006.
About.
30% of GDP.
Was really the result of securitization of mortgages in other words the there was so much money lean mean and in new century we're doing sixty billion a month that money is going right -- the economy instantaneously -- money's coming from investors going if the economy isn't as people bought homes.
Now the securitization markets broken they haven't fixed Fannie and Freddie politicians have really fallen asleep at the switch they haven't fixed the most important part.
Of our economy and that is -- that's really hurting -- that's what John fed was still down five million where you're -- The reality is when you're so depended on housing.
You have a false economy so today we have a weak economy 2005 dot six we had a false economy we were paying for it.
What we have to do was we have to become more competitive globally.
And that's gonna call you know -- -- reached -- average.
-- -- did you were outrageous arrogant and do that though when you've got we still have a trade war with China we still have.
US cut what can 1% of -- vehicles are being sold and a huge market are coming from America you've got a war of words with the administration I mean.
All of that does not bode well for us trying to access other markets and try to make make something in the.
-- -- -- You've got to become more competitive the first step is to reduce the regulatory burden that has been placed on businesses.
Health Care Reform EPA regulations.
Labor regulations you can go on and not with this and that asked -- -- of reduced as much as possible and water to win against the global competitiveness of US -- -- how they gonna have demanded that got a corporate tax had effectively a 35%.
We're sure I mean that's.
The the whole regulatory overhang is just an enormous problem that really.
-- has picked up over the last three fortress I would for regulation and taxes say I mean let's just put all together referral on this.
-- -- -- let's not forget too that sometimes businesses make some great mistake says they did in banking.
That you're you talked about earlier -- -- lot of trouble so -- almost begging for additional regulation so there has to be improvements in management and let's not.
Let's not just blame the government.
Totally different subject -- really -- clarity you Europe.
-- -- -- Well but on a global lecture -- been speaking about the risks in Europe in.
A -- done an indicator list of seventy indicators that look at risk out of Europe and whether it will impact our stock market.
Might risk indicators actually been improving.
This ESM banking license it's gonna take awhile to get it done it -- it's gonna be at least until maybe until next may before they get.
But if the ESM can actually lend to banks instead of that money having to go through the sovereign it's a big -- -- -- -- -- TARP yeah yeah simplified.
In the ECB has to be -- with -- rate cuts with monetary stimulus data rate cut today what -- -- bond yields and Italy and Spain rose significantly.
And the European stocks fell sharply what -- did -- do.
Not too much good at at at the start at least still there to be more aggressive they almost have to be willing to go ahead.
-- we -- set a ceiling.
Four government bond yields in Italy and Spain to convince markets that they're serious about stabilizing that situation.
And take John Anderson -- John -- great to see you gonna Pressler without law is gonna see about us.
