You're watching...
University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato on the impact of the jobs numbers on the Presidential election and at what point polls will have more signific...
Also in this playlist...
Auto-advance: ON
Auto-advance
This transcript is automatically generated
-- -- Now though right back to the November elections we're just one day away from this June jobs report number and it's a make or break moment I think for President Obama and his reelection campaign.
Larry 70 from the University of Virginia politics from the company now.
Larry these jobs numbers now as we did -- this summertime have to really matter when it comes to the November election.
Yeah they really do Charles look they're only five jobs numbers left before November the November 6 election remember the last one could be the most important one.
That's Friday before the Tuesday election.
It's the last new piece of information voters are likely to get.
Before they vote how the by the end 95%.
Will have decided how they're gonna vote and they won't change but the other 5% of this is a really close election.
Could determine the election but to -- number is is gonna tell us.
Whether last month's tick up in the unemployment rate.
Was an aberration or whether it's really the beginning of the story of this election will all find out and 8:30 AM Larry despite.
You know -- the the irony of the unemployment rate going down a lot because people dropping out of the jobs market.
Is that number the one that resonates the most with the public as opposed to a 120000.
Vs 90000 that kind of thing.
It really is you know of people don't know how to interpret a 100000 new jobs vs 400000.
They look at a negative number obviously -- immediately get depressed by.
That the absolute numbers don't matter to most people.
They look at that one number why because every month for you know time immemorial the media has put a lot of emphasis on it.
So in a sense it becomes the prism through which most people interpret the economy the overall economy right remember they interpret their personal economy.
By whether or not they're friends and family are employed and whether if they have us stock market investments they're doing well -- -- -- they have they interpreted to -- GDP the president probably only have 10% of the votes right now I want to switch real quick cuts another topic in is near and dear to your hearts.
It's about polls.
What are the polls really start to matter for the election.
Public opinion polls be very wary of them until.
At least a week after the second convention and remember we have -- -- late convention schedule this year.
The Republicans at the very end of August the Democrats at the very beginning of September so you're literally talking about mid September September 15 or so.
Before the polls start becoming.
-- start becoming predictive.
Now Charles we have election models that are based on lots of different economic and political.
Data these start to become significant in this month of July.
So will actually have a decent indication.
Of whether at least the election is going to be close or not by the end of this month.
There is -- though thank you very much we appreciate it can't wait there on these data points are talking about we'll be back at Harrelson.
Secretary another thing.
