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Moody’s Chief Economist John Lonski on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy.
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Well joining me now.
John Lonsky chief economist for Moody's capital markets' John I only like to talk with you when there's were surrounded by all this good news and great news it is.
Yes it is especially from Europe -- braced hopes that perhaps the market will begin to move higher.
Better reflect recent improvements in earnings but still we get -- get all good news today we had some troubling news.
On consumers spending.
That wages and salaries were flat which is salaries United States growing by only.
3% basically Euro reader do you really do you pay much attention that because at the refinance if that is you know as we look back over the last couple of decades.
We know you and I both.
That the votes and basically the compensation has been pretty flat.
In terms of our wages across -- country for actually for longer almost three.
Yeah and that's been true for advanced economies in general Europe United States and Japan and so -- companies want to have any hope.
Of growing profit said he double digit percentage -- they have to look.
To -- developing markets emerging market countries and while I'm just -- as I can be.
For Spain for Italy and all the European Union.
Countries and the Euro zone countries.
What I'm most -- about it is that -- -- his focus back from the US economy and and next week what's gonna happen.
What do you think -- we're going to see happen because I mean now.
You know at least for one day your -- over here on the side well after some lack -- reports from the -- -- manufacturing.
And service sector activity earlier in the week.
Don't be shocked if we have another disappointing.
Reading on the US labor market come Friday and we end up giving a lot of the gains that we achieved today.
So basically.
Spain and Italy gang up on -- Angela Merkel and make her listen to them and she has to be more generous than she wanted to and therefore the European Union.
Appears at least have come up with a settlement.
But it doesn't matter to our prospects here after we've watched the market that are -- just.
A road over the past several months because of those -- guns in Europe.
You know at the same time we find that US economic activity has been slowing down while worries are still growing.
Other growing at a rate that's considerably less than what we've.
Achieve the past couple of Beers and moreover you know the case of Europe don't forget that the Germans are willing to go along with a more aggressive approach.
Towards resolving their -- because their economy is beginning to suffer.
From the recessions that now plague deeper peripheral European economies and we're seeing some companies.
Like ninety bit he is is truly global and if you world where -- sneaker meets the road.
They're saying some significant slowdown.
That's gonna of the especially true in.
But once fast growing.
Economies like Brazil China India and this is catching up.
With the US multinationals so we can expect to hear business leaders this president.
The leaders of both political parties in this country stand up start -- problem.
And -- about what a great strong resilient economy we've got so we can return to our rightful and historic role as.
The engine of growth for the global -- In my heart right global economy is depending upon the US that will grow by no more than 2% the global economy is in a lot of trouble.
-- my guess is John that just about every.
Every area we just talked about would sign up for 2% with the exception of China.
Right now going into the latter half of the year that's going to be especially true in European what are the oddities of today's activity in Europe is that the Euro.
Actually moved higher against the dollar when given the slumping you know having -- that current chief currency should be heading good towards -- dollar 159 which a dollar 27.
-- government markets are wrong it means that there's a possibility.
There's a possibility.
That we're gonna see things well of the surprising nature occurrence shock and surprise all the economist.
Who might have well a negative outlook at least that the market.
Well that's it you know that's what happened today but who knows what.
That will happen next week and as I said we're getting a lot of major.
Data points on the US economy coming up this week it wouldn't be surprising if speak -- he came in on the downside right.
I'm going to be pulling for the upside.
As I know -- as well -- thanks so much for.
