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Why Housing Hasn't Hit Bottom

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    Euler Hermes chief economist, Americas, Dan North, weighs in on the housing market.

  • Duration 2:27
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Pipeline right -- somebody -- OK you know it seems every good piece of economic data instantly gets countered by a negative reading in some other indicator.

Here to help -- make sense of all this mixed data.

Dan north chief economist of North America America for -- -- her knees up is the proper pronunciation I am told Dan thanks for being with us.

-- to the newest data point out today that's got the markets up 92 points right now on the Dow.

Is pending home sales which were up nicely right.

Yes that's right -- up five point 9%.

But you know there's a lot of optimism about the housing market lot of analysts think we've reached sort of a bottom but.

As much as -- like to be an optimist I really don't see it if you look at the broad array of the housing indicators.

For instance housing starts and existing home sales.

They are both down last month they've been down three out of the past four months new home sales were up but there was the first time in three months.

New home price has been down three straight months they say -- were up this month but down five and a half percent last month.

There's just not enough -- enough indicators to say to me that -- -- a bottom is as much as I'd like to be able to say we are.

And yet as soon as we get enough indicators saying it is definitely moving up off the bottom it'll be too late for us to invest I guess how about consumer confidence.

A bad number came in yesterday.

Right.

And the fourth straight month in a row and it's it's little wonder when we have still such high unemployment and implements tuition just getting worse over the past -- -- four months.

-- income uncertainty out of Europe uncertainty out of DC.

Isn't really again no wonder that the consumer is.

Feeling -- -- are unhappy about things in this is this is a real problem we need the consumer to get active here.

GP's revised tomorrow I don't think it's gonna be revised much either way.

But they had the big point is as weak.

-- ready to get the consumer going and again with lack of confidence weekend come uncertainty everywhere.

It's it's not a great picture for tomorrow it.

And distillate less clear -- you know what frustrates me if it didn't matter what the metric comes out and says it's a matter of whether it met the expectations sometimes.

If something goes above the expectation or below what that has a far bigger impact on the actual reading itself.

Well sure that's right if you have expectations are already built into the market.

It's really not news.

Unless there's something that's much better a much better are worse than expected.

So -- you know that's that's kind of the end the nature of the beast there reallocate that overall though we -- not gonna get better -- -- start feeling better thank you very much -- north.

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