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S&P Capital chief equity strategist Sam Stovall weighs in on the markets, the presidential election and investors.
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Call now there's a poll out showing President Obama -- Mitt Romney basically in a dead heat Wall Street Journal has that this morning Obama 47.
Romney 44 within the margin of bearable the president does lead in some key swing states.
But forget about all that for just a second as our first guest here on markets now says stocks.
No more than -- -- -- chief investment strategist.
S&P equity research joins us now give us the numbers that back that up -- Hello their Connell well since 1944.
Whenever the market -- risen from July 31 through October 31.
It signals that the market is going to re elect the incumbent.
And -- whenever the market has declined in that three month period.
Then the indication is that the market thinks that the incumbent will be replaced.
And the percentages are very high 90% of frequency of accuracy of seeing the incumbent being reelected.
And an 86%.
Accuracy rate seeing give the incumbent is going to be replaced yeah obviously knowing that past performance is no guarantee of future result I -- didn't work threatened what was it 56 Eisenhower won and but I guess -- right market in 1956 the market went down right but Eisenhower was reelected and -- -- investors were scared to death about Richard Nixon even then let -- I think however advisors I was the vice president and the worry was that.
Because Eisenhower had just had a heart attack they were worried about his health right also had the Suez Canal incident.
And we also had the Hungarian uprising in 1956 -- that -- the other time that it did not work was in 1968 the market went up.
But Hubert Humphrey was not pleased as punch to get elected following Lyndon B Johnson possibly because we had.
They -- third party candidate who took took a lot of the conservative democratic.
Votes away and he wasn't really an incumbent -- did this is the the idea which is kind of -- -- here and you bring up those two instances is that there are extenuating circumstances and there are exceptions to every rule.
And what would make you think this year wouldn't be a year in which there's an exception to a role for example.
You know I I feel like you both anecdotally and if you look at the stats people are less interest it now -- -- this matters in the stock market than they have been in the while.
You that you just don't hear people say they have the Dow -- today and it's up 87 right but they're not as interest and also -- money's coming out of stock funds indicating.
Statistically the people aren't as interest of the stock market so wouldn't matter less this year because of that do you think.
Well and let me add one more thing that I think a lot of people would presume that investors are.
Republicans for conservative fiscal policies etc.
so -- If they think that Romney's gonna get elected the market would go up front I think what -- -- what this indicator released says however is that.
If investors are that worried about the economic situation.
And that prices are falling.
It's an implication that they are willing to get rid of a known quantity.
In place of an unknown quantity because the known quantity is not doing a very good job so well I would tend to say -- they are willing to switch horses in the middle of the street give us a final answer that as we say were up today but we have a month until this.
Timeframe I guess begins do you have a personal outlook for that three month.
Time spent.
I think that does certainly the third quarter of the presidential election year.
Is believe -- -- not a coin toss since world -- The frequency of advance has been equal to their frequency of decline.
The advanced percentage wise is only a gain of zero point 1%.
So right now when it comes to the odds game none the ultimate political answer from the stock market got sort of -- that's the way -- -- get to see is Sam.
Thanks -- -- all -- all now.
