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First Trust Advisors Chief Economist Brian Wesbury on the outlook for the economy and markets.
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The statistic but.
Under because I'm an optimist but a new report from Standard and -- out today says the US still faces a 20%.
Chance of a double dip recession but we've got an economist who disagrees.
And says the US economy just kind of tracking along in a plow horse economy.
Brian west -- -- chief economist at first trust advisors and he joins us now Brian what I what I so love about you if you are right.
You are gonna make one hell of a killing because there's so many people who are running for the doors right now.
Your contrarian.
We love contrary it's.
But how do you how do you deal with those headwinds that just in terms -- cycle psychologically when you're such a bull.
You know David and -- is great to be -- -- -- I'm not a contrary -- just to be a contrary and that's not what I did -- I'm really supply side economist who looks at the economy believes in technology you know we have the cloud the Internet.
The Smart -- we have fracking guys were just talking about energy prices.
And it would that the US is a watch and natural gas and oil there's a lot of very good things going on on drew eight -- it doesn't mean.
That doesn't mean everything's perfect right so so that's why people get worried.
20% chance of recession -- you just mentioned you know we we -- in recession about 10% of the time so.
I guess you could call that a doubling of that the odds but it still way way way below 50%.
Yeah and and and you know this economy has grown for the past three years and David I'm long I mean -- long equities and I think this stock market is really undervalued and pricing in bad things that.
I just don't think are gonna.
Happen -- actually say that took the double dip is highly unlikely so -- RB -- -- now because we're we're we're looking -- -- economy -- -- -- -- so let's -- -- is correct.
Then so waves for an investor who look let's just throw -- -- baby boomers for example.
Although we have a lot of people who span the gamut of different ages and different objectives when it comes to investing.
Should they be more heavily invested in equities right now they're looking for that opportunity -- -- -- do turn around in the prior.
Right I I think.
They should be you know we have thirty year low as I mean in some cases fifty year lows in interest rates.
-- there's just not much more room for the bond market to rally that doesn't mean interest rates are gonna go straight up but.
Your earnings in the ten year treasury are -- low.
Lots and lots of dividend yields and stocks.
I look at equities today as being as cheap as -- -- in the early 1980s.
Right and you mentioned the four step process to recovery I think if we have those four steps.
We could see a boom.
Like we had in the eighty's and ninety's maybe not let you know a ten -- twelve full boom and stocks but a really nice run -- last for the next few years.
Okay by the way we're putting up these four steps to to a real strong recovery right now.
And I gotta tell you bright even though you and I have disagreed on air before we had a fight once about whether the about six months ago I -- the economy is slowing down he said know what's going on find.
I think if these four things you know play out the way you think -- well of course you've already had Scott Walker's.
-- but if we do have a more pro business congress in power may be even in the executive front of four pro business president.
This economy -- -- because there is a lot of repressed supply that is trillions of dollars on the sideline we all know about that a lot of budding entrepreneurs that are waiting.
People like Zain tackle we've had him on to show what who voted for a -- 2008 who said he is not gonna build a couple more restaurants and less Obama's defeated.
So it is that there are a lot of -- ifs there is one of those this doesn't come true.
What happens to your four steps.
Sure and I and I think David you know this is the key you know if you if you look at the world politically right so.
So they eat you don't want Obama in office are worried about taxes and spending it's really easy to get really negative really fast right.
And that's why I call -- a plow horse economy we are growing.
Despite all the mistakes Washington has made.
So then imagine what happens if we start to get those mistakes -- we start to fix them so.
So the walker victory in Wisconsin if the Supreme Court.
Knocks down the mandate in obamacare.
If weakened to change the leadership in the White House and by the way I I just.
President Obama could win again if he were to for example.
Avoid the fiscal cliff and and and not cut and cut taxes before they get raised in other words.
-- right now say no tax hikes in January.
He might if he could do what Bill Clinton did and swing right he might get reelected but that would be good for the markets to so.
So anyway what I'm looking at is we need to swing the pendulum.
To a smaller government and more certainty current if we do that this economy's ready to pop by the way David Axelrod wants your phone number -- -- -- a tumor.
That given Dick -- -- thought number alert for Bill Clinton made made alert for Barack Obama Brian thank you very much we appreciate it.
