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Part one now this good news on the housing market that -- mentioned above and go home prices did rise in nearly all the major.
I cities that are measured in non April from march and Robert Shiller -- the co author of the Case Shiller Index that puts out those numbers he's we're here with us.
In studio Yale professor so.
It's always nice to have you in as we do almost every month that you put out these figures -- we can say it's not that pretty goodness what do we make of it.
It is good news about half of it is seasonal.
And the seasonal as a little hard to judge has been irregular -- -- But I think it is good news and for fruit sellers not provocative right have home prices are going up.
And I think they will probably continue for at least the summer months and I don't really know how to predict beyond that.
Because -- statistic -- use the comparison -- between buyers and sellers because one of the things in the psychology of all this is we look at the twenty city index of the chart of it.
From Kay -- and it's always.
It didn't in all serious is fascinating to hear you talk about the psychology of -- because -- you've studied that.
It's how people think about it and do they look at it -- set these prices are going up a little but I better get in -- better -- now I've been waiting they've been falling falling falling -- my time.
Well some people think that -- different people think different things but Karl Case and I have been doing surveys of homebuyers the United States.
And are finding has done consistently.
That is every year goes by in this crisis people's long term expectations go down.
That means that.
I think long term expectations for what -- home prices do over the next ten years are what homebuyers care about the most and that has not been improving.
What changes it.
I think there's in the housing market.
Shows long swings.
That we had a boom from 1997.
And now we've been down for five years.
He fall gradually change their opinion they got overly excited about housing in the early two thousand's and then.
When it started following -- thought well it'll just be temporary -- but as it continues and continues.
They gradually get less and less pessimistic -- Point that was trying to make -- it's not gonna be great sort hasn't been in rates are basically zero -- mean you're not gonna get a better deal on an interest rates and we've gotten.
Of course people could that the they're gonna go even lower but when they look at prices and you think you're going out looking to neighborhoods and start to see the prices inch up you bet might say -- the rates are low.
I've waited and waited and waited now's my time because the prices are inching up and -- wanna get caught.
Well I I think that it's more of the low interest rates and the moderate prices are not low by long historical standards but they're okay prices so I think yeah so I think affordability is good right now.
Now the next thing or is what will home prices do that is a big unknown I think -- and -- -- who knows how to forecast -- and I think that.
That this sounds this had.
The evasive but it's not they could go up they could go down.
And you know I'm not ready to count out this we've been declining for six years now I think it's it's not obvious to me that that's -- Although if I look at today's date and ask you the most basic of all questions and initiative even started with this but it is the most basic question.
Is the worst over you would say -- I'm concerned.
It may be over you have right now it's a good in his day and I don't wanna because as it's not just in my personality to be.
-- -- -- -- -- -- But is does that.
There is that there are trends and our society a home is a long term investment particularly.
Let's think of a home that's kind of distant from the Center City -- -- -- that.
Those homes might have a long term.
Negative because fuel costs are becoming more concerned people are more concerned about green -- and the fashion -- -- be changing.
So that having a make mansion out there isn't as empowerment that used to be right stent and -- and our expectations are not getting more optimistic.
So you're not ready to -- you nominates another worse is over I think if you like that.
-- -- -- to set up to -- you -- the point you're not prepared to say that yet you're just a little worried.
I think when people shop for housing bases they should just focus primarily.
What do I want.
If I want -- one acre lot and have been nice house in that community.
Do -- I can't I don't see it's affordable and I don't see how we can.
For forecast where it's gonna go with any reliability -- either way we'll have you on again next month and figured I'll say it could happen.
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