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Former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin on the costs of the health-care law and the potential outcome of the Supreme Court ruling.
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Right looks like gambling on Obama cares staying put it will cost you.
Ireland's base in trades prediction markets saying there's nearly a 77% chance the Supreme Court will strike down the individual mandate.
Let's -- Doug Holtz -- a president of the American action forum and former CBO director.
If these real unlikely -- -- what do you think's gonna happen that you've watched this so closely.
-- out.
I've watched closely but I also thought we should ask the experts so -- things we did was poll people who had either.
Argued in front of the Supreme Court -- clerked for Supreme Court justice and they felt that the probability that a court would overturn the individual man it was 56%.
And I think probably it's it's gone up a little in my estimation because one of the things we learned today is the Justice Kennedy authored.
Majority opinion on the Arizona case.
That means that it's quite likely that Chief Justice Robertson has taken a pent up for.
The the Affordable Care -- case and then since he's already Kennedy it makes me more optimistic about the outcome.
Hop that's interesting so really depends on who writes the opinion.
At least in part now you -- I have talked a lot about how expensive this is.
For the country what is the most expensive piece of this legislation and and and what cost to do we not even see coming -- The most expensive part is the promised to subsidize insurance -- the so called exchanges where subsidies.
You know are are available for people make up the 400% of the federal poverty line so.
Someone making 70000 dollars eligible for 7000 dollars in subsidies 10% of their income -- That's very expensive in and of itself and my feeling is that in the presence of those subsidies many employers.
We'll simply choose not to get into the business of providing health insurance and that over time we'll see an explosion of those costs.
And that's not something we can afford -- time our debt is already in such bad shape.
Amen to that you know I'm wondering if you see is there any message from the supreme court's ruling today on immigration.
They seem to be saying there that states have lots of rights and that the federal government was overstepping.
Do you think that we might hear something similar on Thursday with obamacare.
Well -- As I understand it the question on the Arizona case was -- the states have the right to do something where there's clear federal jurisdiction border control and immigration.
Whereas.
-- portal care -- case is really -- the federal government you know.
Venture engine and absolutely new territory and compel commerce so the lawyers I talked to tell me that there's not a lot of information -- came out today.
And we'll have to wait till Thursday and find out what the court thanks.
Well what do we all get surprised and -- -- this could it very well happen that the Supreme Court decide that they think obamacare is a wonderfully constitutional.
Piece of legislation.
What happens next to the effort to get rid of Obama care.
Well I I hope they don't decide that I've filed 3M -- history stop providing me at the policy foundation for why it's going in the wrong direction but.
Should the court -- -- make that decision it will remain the case that we need to go back to.
Congress and then and White House's and say.
In 2009 people wanted health care form the providing quality care lower cover and lower costs and better coverage options and we need to get -- that.
I think the starting point is to scale back that the two large subsidies in that in those exchanges and unwind some of the bureaucracy that's quite frankly very unpopular and a bipartisan basis right now that'll help us get better care help us.
A better care a lot of people out -- say insurers in particular that they're gonna keep some of the things Obama -- told them to do already.
Is it possible that the landscape is already changed so dramatically that you can't go back you can't turn the page back.
Well I think certainly the advocates for the bill have to have tried to move as fast as they could in order to.
-- make that the case on it's been difficult however -- you know there's so many regulations that.
Even -- HS is it is behind only about.
22 out of the forty regulations were down on time so.
It there's not too much say that you can't really stop to -- deep breath and go for the kind of common sense step by step reforms -- really would better serve us in this debate.
While -- long way to go -- thanks for months I don't see it Thursday in Washington thank you.
