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RBS Global head of foreign exchange strategy Robert Sinche on the decline of the euro, the potential for QE3 and the need for growth in Europe and the...
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I got a bridge to -- -- It's our right as we mentioned earlier our EU summit that's been request money anywhere -- -- -- have been going on right here our next guest is gonna help us figure it all out.
Joining us now Bob since RBS global head of foreign exchange strategy Bob I think we got -- now.
Bob you know -- I saw a -- -- earlier about this we seem to trade on events in hopes that once they match is finished.
Everything will be -- again but -- we just move on to the next event that we're waiting for how do we get out of -- Is.
On aggregate data Malays.
Two things number one of the Europeans thought authorities would get in front of the markets as opposed -- -- in the markets all the time that would certainly help.
But the biggest issue I think is growth you know until you get growth moving ahead in Europe.
It's going to be extremely difficult to maintain austerity is going to be difficult to maintain political stability.
So you know rising tides lift all boats.
In this case the -- not rising -- growth is slowing and that recession setting and that makes it so much different more difficult to get these things adjusted.
Right and no one has high hopes for this EU summit Italy got clobbered today Angela Merkel has come -- -- citizenry doesn't like anything she's hearing.
So that being said doesn't trade here I mean how do we eat is -- legal long dollar and stay the heck away from the -- this point.
-- you know they -- consensus trade obviously is to sell the Euro and the risk is that there's too many people on that side of the consensus and we've seen some pretty nasty balances here in the Euro.
In the last few weeks based on I think very very aggressive short positioning.
Don't forget things -- not all that rosy in the US the Fed is potentially looking at quantitative easing sometime at the we think towards the back -- -- the next quarter.
That's not exactly supportive for the dollar.
Our own view is that there's a risk that we get further short squeezes in the Euro any kind of good news coming out of the and of the EU summit now.
Would probably beat expectations.
And we do think is a risk for the Euro to bounce a bit more over the next couple of months particularly against the dollar the Fed moves towards further reasoning.
It's but then we think that's a great opportunity to sell the Euro.
Because we think sometime in 2013.
-- rather middle of the year it'll be trading under one twice so.
Near term -- kind of shying away looking for better opportunities to sell.
But we definitely think selling hierro against a variety of currencies -- -- US dollar the Australian dollar Canadian dollar.
Almost look good but from better levels than we have right now.
Like this is a game of low expectations today in all things were talking about.
Bad -- since thank you so much for being with us of RBS appreciate your --
