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Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi on whether the looming tax hikes can be avoided and the outlook for the economy.
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Are very messy and may be -- the problems are a lot sooner than we think Mark Zandi says of those were solid.
Try at least a January recession mark let's spell that out why do you see that as a possibility.
You base at least near term a lot on what's going on -- -- -- a more to -- -- not going on and.
Yeah I.
I don't think we're gonna have a recession Neill Noah and I think a -- does depend on what policy makers do the fiscal -- the treasury debt ceiling how to achieve fiscal sustainability.
And my sense is policy makers will get it together reasonably well because he's gonna feel squishy early next year but.
An equal and it's a technical term for you squishy but I I don't think we're gonna go -- but it.
-- if they don't decide to do something on these blue rates these tax results better than Medicare.
Payroll tax thing that expires BA and -- -- saying that expires so much else that expires.
Then doesn't that.
Bomb goes all the the end of the year.
They don't act on it then they could cause problems right.
Yeah if they don't -- -- they do nothing but I don't see that happening right.
No they don't see why they would do that -- mean there's it does -- common ground -- I think I don't know what president -- could these -- -- has been a long -- August -- -- last year yeah.
Well no they -- things to the precipice but depth.
-- the markets react the same way it would -- dead at that point we we had a downgrade in the middle of that.
With the markets care or they so -- resigned to this they they kind of know what does that it's a soap opera.
Well I I think they're pretty consistent with the script legislate out for you I think the markets believe that at the end of the day the policy makers will get it together well enough that will avoid.
The cataclysmic event now.
If it will be there will be brinkmanship that will feel uncomfortable I wouldn't be surprised if we got into early next year and had made a decision about.
The tax cuts.
Bush era tax cuts so you know but I think the markets fully anticipate that I think that's that's basically priced -- But you know they can be disappointed I'm -- any thoughts by the way aren't I guess we can only be termed disappointing reaction to.
There's operations whereas those stats for cats the other said that once again on it was not robustly -- let's put it.
Well markets rally of the last few days in anticipation.
Of this exact -- to the markets got exactly what they expected.
Also don't forget that that the market's only moved -- -- -- right on that.
Spot on intervention whether it's from the Fed -- central banks in Europe.
-- of their own -- -- us.
Well I mean I think markets come along way code can be given what that there is reserve has done I mean the markets are quite significantly fact.
The S&P 500 is almost 1050% away from its previous all time peak to -- much more optimistic then Bob.
Slash your risk threat if I heard a lot you know -- ITX started depressed me a little bit young if he's a seller on the buyer and -- I think.
I think corporate earnings are in good shape margins -- is -- they've ever been.
Balance sheets are strong as they've ever been you pick your your measure balance sheet strength so now I would disagree with -- -- I think our prosper.
-- let me pin you down politically if you don't mind mark sure.
Who's better for the economy.
Barack Obama getting reelected or Mitt Romney come in and.
Well you know the reality is when me whoever comes in is gonna have to deal with congress and whoever whenever congress whatever president.
In my view they're gonna come roughly to the same place that they have to do three things.
Early next year what is it to scale back that fiscal cliff -- have to do that so weather's Obama are running about to do that.
You're gonna have to figure out how do extend the treasury debt ceiling whoever it is -- both gonna have to do it.
And they're both gonna have to figure out -- to become poor with a credible path towards fiscal sustainability.
In that's gonna involve tax spending cuts and tax revenue increases in they're both gonna come to that same conclusion to -- -- -- so mugs game.
So well it didn't admit that if we got those three thanks -- -- they were sitting here in Europe we're having an interview exactly a year from now.
I actually it's a pretty good place to be in those fundamentals I've talked about sort to shine for a aren't we shall -- markets always a pleasure sir thank you think you.
