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Fed Cuts Economic Forecasts

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  • Description

    FBN's Peter Barnes weighs in on the Fed’s recent projections for the coming years.

  • Duration 3:13
  • Date

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Apparent right now it does projections Peter.

-- -- -- the FOMC has just released a significant downgrade and its outlook for the economy for this year and beyond let's get right.

To our full -- for your first time.

Unemployment the Fed's unemployment projection for 2012 is back above 8%.

Now projecting about eight point.

8 -- eight point 1% for the full year it was seven point 9% in the previous forecast in April.

No surprise that that change though because of the recent weak jobs reports we've been seeing month a month.

Another fed does expect unemployment to fall below 8% and 2013 to about seven point 8% and then down to about seven point 4%.

And 4014.

Now let's go -- the GDP forecast it sees that GDP growth.

Slowing not as strong -- when he twelve about 2.2 percent.

For the year vs a forecast of about two point 7%.

In April.

Part when he thirteen its season GDP growing at two and a half percent and then when he -- growing at 3.3 percent.

The good news is inflation it sees lower inflation today.

Than it did in April well thanks largely to the decline in oil and gas prices about one point 5% -- the forecast now for 2012%.

Vs a 2%.

Forecast back in April for 2013.

As projecting a one point 8% inflation in the same for.

40141.

Point 8% that is up below its now official target.

2%.

And then finally we've got this new tool they've been giving this where they.

Survey they members of the FOMC voting and nonvoting all nineteen of them now for the appropriate timing.

A policy firming.

To give markets and consumers some idea of when the Fed might start to raise interest rates and and with this new.

Weaker.

Economic forecast and higher unemployment forecast it is obviously we have more members now expecting policy firming.

-- around back out and 2014.

And 4015.

I as you can see from that the the Fed as you know wants to.

-- by short term interest rates -- low.

Through at least late morning fourteen and now we see.

Thirteen of the FOMC members believe that the Fed should not start.

Tightening before -- -- analyst.

Wow -- a sudden some big trends to those projections there especially in GDP growth I -- you -- man was always right -- ground zero.

What in this report stuck out -- was surprising.

I I was surprised.

By the the GDP the cut in the GDP forecast I think that that surprised me the most.

Four when he -- when he twelve.

I and beyond we we knew that the unemployment rate forecast had to come down with the weak job creation numbers that -- that Fed Chairman has said.

That the that the previous GDP forecast was really contingent on job growth -- a 150 to 200000 jobs a month.

We've only seen about a 100000 jobs a month on average and the last three months to -- Yet the big -- unfortunately 2.2 percent for the -- Here now is even looking ambitious at this point that Peter -- thank you so much we appreciate it.

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