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Former CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin gives his predictions for the Supreme Court's decision on the health-care law.
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Of course is Supreme Court is ready to roll from getting ready to roll on president Obama's health care law.
How will that go down Douglas Holtz Aiken might know he's president.
Of the American action forum former couldn't director of the Congressional Budget Office.
He also was the economic director on John McCain's presidential campaign almost well for years ago.
-- -- good to see you how could tell me how the Supreme Court rules you think.
-- my best guess is that the Supreme Court will invalidate individual mandate.
But that would be -- they won't take any further action.
And then they'll essentially savings to the congress here I go fix this some.
That's that's not inside information that's based largely on the fact that before the oral arguments we did a poll of those who -- either -- for her argue in front of the Supreme Court.
Ask them what they thought would happen and the highest probability outcome was the individual mandate being -- declared unconstitutional.
I think -- -- -- happens is that simply raise that policy.
Only a -- when you say congress must then go fix that I -- -- -- you're talking about the provision that com.
Forces insurance companies to take all commerce whether they have preexisting conditions.
And insure them at the same cost as healthy people because if you throw down that if you knock down the individual mandate.
You financially.
And economically you cannot have the -- stand as it is -- premiums would skyrocket and people who are healthy would not get insurance.
-- what we've seen seven states tried to have the provisions community rating everyone pays the same price and guaranteed issue you have -- That insurance companies have to put out policy.
Those states have just seen their their interest markets become a disaster so.
You know this -- will be and exactly that kind of condition if Stewart -- -- -- mandate.
Are so there's really even administration that's it won't work -- they have to go back and fix.
In terms of the politics on the campaign trail and the republic -- and the Democrats.
You could argue that if the Supreme Court does -- strike down at least part of it say the -- individual mandate of this law.
That then the Republicans have to step up with ideas of their own and so far.
They Mitt Romney has come out with -- many ideas.
Nevertheless in Republicans in general can -- to have been able to just step back and say you know this doesn't work but now they'll be forced to talk about something that.
Might.
Well.
I think they key thing to remember is that if you go back to the beginning of the health care debate 2009.
There was an agreement are Republicans Democrats alike that the -- to -- Health Care Reform but that the key component was controlling health care costs.
And all all the analysis of the Affordable Care -- says that -- -- won't do that so.
I think if the court -- as part of the law.
It will still be important to you know get rid of the rest of it and start from scratch on reforms.
That are not so large don't try to reconfigure the entire health sector -- provide incentives to control cost coordinate care do prevention.
In a reasonable way and I think well Republicans Democrats election go there.
If the court does rule the way you say it does does it hurt the president -- You still have a majority anyway at least hold on majority percentage of people who were opposed to this health care -- think the last numbers were close to 50%.
Of Americans are opposed following the 39%.
Are in favor of this law.
The -- very unpopular and as with many in the -- policies he really does not want to talk about them.
They will not help his chances for reelection.
If the court does declare something unconstitutional.
-- -- -- bad reminder of that record.
From the point of view of the president but also gives him an opportunity.
To say to his base look we need a better Supreme Court.
Reelect me so I'm in the position to to put on the court the kinds of justices that we would favor I think that's how you'll see this play out.
Doug it was great to see you as always see -- Douglas Holtz Aiken in I get some rest this campaign is it then -- -- a little bit more than you did.
For nearly -- divest that is analyze data thought they can't.
-- what we did.
