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Macquarie Global Oil and Gas strategist Vikas Dwivedi on the state of oil production and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
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-- -- in the world.
Right oil -- more than 15% so far this year and got the OPEC ministers meeting Indiana tomorrow.
With of course this whole big Saudi Arabia I ranting at odds over how much crude to pump so what could mean for oil and gas prices this summer.
Joining us now is -- is doing the daddy of Macquarie Group and global oil and gas strategist thank you for being with us.
What does this mean is this really just about.
Saudi Arabia and I ran and basically -- is gonna come out ahead.
You know thanks -- that is definitely a part of the meeting.
Agenda and some of the key dynamics are between Saudi Arabia and thereon.
And the real take away though from the meeting is likely to be no change to the thirty million -- barrel per day quota.
Also no change to.
Eighty.
Production levels as they are they won't change the quote and they won't know they won't make any announcements about production cuts.
And they will acknowledge though as a third item is they do.
Worry about the overall economy and they have an interest in not letting prices get too high again.
And a way to help the economy globally so I think.
It'll be a little bit of a non event in that regard but more of a reiteration of their comfortable -- The current prices now within that as you mentioned there is a tension.
Between Iran and Saudi Arabia -- also have to play out as a kind of a subtext to the broader meeting.
Because Saudi -- in theory want to keep the prices.
Relatively well right which in turn I guess help hurt I ran.
Right right in the question is are they doing it on purpose of -- really want to put the screws to Iran as much as possible.
Without accidentally pushing the market to super low levels.
And in their do if they can keep prices.
Low meaning a hundred or thereabouts.
That hurts Iran quite a bit because it's point 5% lower than the highs of the year -- on top of much reduced export volumes Iran's exports are down.
About 60% and their pricing is down.
About 25%.
So you're talking nearly a 50% hit to revenues from the peak of just a few months ago -- -- That -- you know at a hundred dollars a barrel is that -- -- you know.
I understand that that's -- Venezuela would like to keep -- but in reality.
Isn't.
Wouldn't shouldn't it be around eighty he's any I even a dollars a barrel.
You know on the global market the one of the key things keep in mind is that the global oil production industry.
Does need a hundred dollar oil to earn a return on their capital.
And it's still quite expensive to find and produce oil globally and you know that's.
That's fair value and if anything it's north of that once the global economy gets free started in earnest but.
You know I understand where people think.
The low should be eighty year or even lower but.
Broadly companies can't make a return at those price.
But quickly mean just -- -- -- -- US oil consumption it it's continuing to decline we're increasing our use of natural gas -- -- at the end of the day state.
That the notion is we're gonna eventually wean ourselves off this or OPEC dependency shouldn't we.
Yet yet that's well.
Under way and you know the production growth we're over a million barrels a day higher than last year in the US.
And we were the leading producer of oil growth last year which is you know -- shocked anybody who's been in oil for any amount of time.
And at in Canada and then start to see a picture where we couldn't have really.
Reduce the imports but they're still quite hot and we still import -- nearly nine million barrels a day so there's there's a ways to go before we're fully weaned off.
And then tell somebody in invents that little to pack that I'm Wayne for we're going to be -- and -- for very long time.
-- -- TV get -- -- getting government -- group thank you so much -- being with us today.
Thank you -- I'm in.
