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“The Next Hundred Million” author Joel Kotkin on the economic impact of demographic and population changes.
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-- -- Well my next guest says the biggest threat to the economies of Europe and ultimately this country is one of demographic decline.
Joining us now is Forbes contributor Chapman university's urban futures follow jolt copter.
He's also author of the book the next hundred million America and 2050.
-- good to have you with us.
You you say here is say that the the idea that.
That there's didn't you -- point blank.
That the decline and -- stress in Europe is one that is demographic.
That the population simply as a growing fast enough.
Right.
-- of course what happens is when -- population is growing fast and the population is -- the the demand.
For pensions and particularly in very strong social democracies.
Is quite is quite strong so.
And then what you have happening I was just in Spain last week.
Is you have an aging population and you have policies that are basically geared to protecting them.
And not a high priority and funding work for the young in Spain the unemployment rate among the youngest is approaching 15%.
But -- almost.
45% across the general workforce I mean it's it's incredible what is going on -- I love the idea that ratings agencies had to think a little bit.
To downgrade.
Our credit ratings here in Spain when you look just at the macro economic metrics.
Of the nation.
They're in they're under terrific and have been under terrific stressed.
According to have it.
Program but me if I may just turn -- that the very simple concept of how on economy grows we see economies that do grow.
With fairly stable populations.
What we have seen in most western our country's.
Economic growth and capital -- Population growth and capital are necessary -- it's -- economic growth.
What are we to do what should we expect from Europe given its ageing population.
And extremely slow -- population growth and a rodent population.
Why can we -- gonna see is is together a tremendous debt crisis particularly.
In places like Spain where there's a weak economy but I also think in places like Germany.
What's happening now in Europe is that there is.
The this sort of what's left of the young skilled workers -- are beginning to migrate from Spain Italy and Greece.
To places like Germany I think -- come to the United States if we had an intelligent immigration policy that was oriented towards people with skills but.
But fundamentally these countries are being drained of their lifeblood.
And remember it's people who are young who -- innovative who start companies who start families.
Who really drive economies have always driven economies from the beginning of history.
You -- you talked about the immigration policies United States United States has the fastest growing population among the OECD countries.
We have with the strongest -- one the strongest birth rates we also.
I bring in more immigrants into this country than any other three countries combined what more could we do in terms of our immigration -- While the main thing I just I'm not doing their members are -- legal move who are just talk about legal immigrant.
I think what you have is you have like you know in Spain you talk to young people more energetic hardworking.
And they'd love to come the United States -- -- be a tremendous addition to -- population.
And instead they I have to go elsewhere because the US favors.
Our family reunion.
-- -- I don't want to get into the politic inauguration he gets to be boring because I've dealt with -- personal and straightforward.
Who's there what should be the standards in Iraq was it's for those people we would bring into this country if we would've.
-- plant are.
Our birth rate in this country.
Further why can we we want to bring in young people who are likely to -- -- -- who are likely to start educational requirements.
Would you have education are we certain education but you know frankly I think I would look at more at work history -- skilled and unskilled -- requirements an energetic young carpenter -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- saying -- -- skills -- English -- you're you're you're saying -- the auspices skills and education.
And reform bills that we need them you know you can go to many parts of this country even in in the Rust Belt.
They can't find -- if they cannot find welders thinking and finally what else I -- very at all you know healthy again and look for.
-- come back and -- maybe next week as soon as next week.
But you know what else they can't find the -- and educational system.
That is working intelligently to produce vocational training for our young people and to educate and we've got in some cases if -- as many as 50%.
Of young Hispanics young African Americans in this country dropping out of high school that's another part of the problem.
-- it's great to talk radio fascinating article and please come back next week -- as soon as you can would love and beyond a continued.
The discussion of why no one's talking about population decline in Europe -- a reason for there.
Economic.
