You're watching...
Moody’s Chief Economist John Lonski and Janney Montgomery Scott Chief Investment Strategist Mark Luschini on the sluggish economic recovery.
Also in this playlist...
Auto-advance: ON
Auto-advance
This transcript is automatically generated
-- -- -- where we go from here John -- who's the chief economist for Moody's capital markets.
Also -- best -- -- she -- the chief investment officer for Janney Montgomery Scott gentlemen welcome to you both John we were expecting -- or jobs report what we got was works what's your take.
Well my view is it tells us the US economy is slowing down that that.
Strong showing by employment earlier.
In the year was mostly the consequence of a warm winter and now we're paying for that -- these weak readings on the jobs front consumer spending is about to decelerate.
Another component mark -- this when -- was this labor participation rate which.
Inched up ever so slightly as we were reporting but the fact is -- historically low and if this were at the rate of -- labour participation our unemployment rate could be upwards of 9% I mean this is troubling stuff.
What's your take the very much so well.
It speaks to the -- deployment issue which was quoted at fourteen point 8% but.
He encouraging -- the fact that the labour participation rate actually ticked up is in -- positive signs indicative of people feeling as though they have an opportunity to find a job.
We're in previous months they -- unfortunately.
It's also happening at a time that we're not creating enough jobs to absorb those coming back into the work force looking for a job and as a consequence.
The uptick in the unemployment rate should have been expected given the numbers that we've seen.
OK so that real and generate over 14% John that's people who are working part time -- Aren't employed to level that they wish to be correct so did you see anything -- you agree with -- see any.
Says this is -- worst economic recovery the worst recovery for appointment perhaps since the Great Depression.
We also got bad news today -- auto sales they fell on a seasonally adjusted basis.
But would it work percent from April.
We're seeing no growth year to year -- mortgage applications for the purchase of all home.
Despite record home affordability.
Of the US worker on the average is still hurting the reality is today we have 58 million.
Fewer jobs than we did at the start of 2008.
Mark there's this idea the self fulfilling prophecy that we're so freaked out by this bad economic -- -- day after day with really today's being.
The Topper with jobs report do you think that all of our concern is making -- hold back our spending -- to John's point.
Make -- utilizing -- possibly could be.
-- -- I would agree with that I think that's the case I mean even though we've seen readings on consumer confidence left.
From the -- back in 2008 and nine there's still well below pre recession levels and in fact surveys taken of the National Federation of Independent Businesses on small business optimism which is largely been an oxy moron.
Suggest that they're still playing things very close to the vast and interestingly.
The number one comment that small business owners -- make relative to what's.
Keeping them back from hiring and expanding businesses.
Is governmental interference on jumping -- just can't get you know I think what do -- we want to remember is this week report on enough via.
Labor force it reminds us that employment income is barely -- we here we are well into an economic recovery in employment income is growing by only.
Three and a half percent year early so that tells me that retail sales -- -- -- to slow considerably first.
-- tells me if there's no inflation so a lot of people are saying the Fed has room -- look at the price the ultimate that's a signal we might get another fed stimulus -- great.
Yeah lot of room wages are growing by only one point 7% year over year despite the Fed supposedly happened printed money like crazy.
We find it base metals prices steady on average are 40% under where they work when -- peaked in 2007.
Plenty of room for fed rate cuts.
But when mark money's cheap and it had been -- for a long time and it hasn't done anything to help this economy special the job market is -- -- what what what is sure.
You're thinking on the Fed from here.
My thinking is that they're probably oil -- the printing presses as we speak because they're not going to tolerate this kind of rate of job growth if we see this pattern continuing because.
It's going in fact overall economic activity as can become a self fulfilling prophecy whereby we could begin to threaten once again.
Concerns have recessions but.
That said.
I think that Federal Reserve has to do something in the you know mechanism of they establishing some extensions Operation Twist or pull from their toolbox a mother methodology because.
Leading into the rule on election season clearly all eyes are on those powers that can do anything to try to resuscitate economic activity.
You are simply can't afford to have equity price deep appreciation be layered upon current -- price deflation.
If household wealth begins to contract again so will consumer spending and in turn.
The overall economy.
Guys a couple of seconds Stein your take on the economy.
Is that gonna slow I think it's gonna slow I think there's a chance vertical from growth of 2% to about 1% in unfortunately I don't think we're gonna resolve matters in Europe.
Until equity markets globally sink even further I literally have to secs market just what your take.
I think it remains stable albeit positive but again the jury's still out until we get much more evidence about Europe stabilization.
Gentlemen thank you for your time your analysis tonight on month in mark -- --
