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Can a Crisis with Iran Be Avoided?

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    Duquesne University Professor Kent Moors on the growing tension with Iran.

  • Duration 3:46
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-- Iran and six won't powers wrapping up yesterday.

Without reaching a deal over Tehran's nuclear program this is we get closer because of the EU ban on a -- and all of which.

We'll stop on July 1 my next guest though says he sees a full blown.

Crisis developing joining me now is -- -- Professor at Duquesne university and director of the school's energy policy research group.

Can't thank you for joining me I'm obviously have a pretty pessimistic.

Outlook on this it seems to me that indeed there's no way that you decide who's gonna budge on the Iran's nuclear program so it seems doomed.

Absolutely the next round of talks actually our June 18 and nineteenth in Moscow.

But the prevailing attitude right now even among the Russians who are hosting this.

Is that there's not going to be any budge on either side of the table so were gonna reach 1 July and that embargo will be enacted.

And that let's embargo the EU ban on July 1 how much is that going to let Iran could that bring them back to the -- -- -- Well that was the assumption although the Iranians believe there's there's a game of diplomatic chicken going on here right now.

The Iranians recognize that 24% of their exports are going to Europe in any given month.

And while eleven of the EU countries import oil from Europe from Iran three of them are particularly dependent upon Iran and unfortunately.

There -- the three nations currently that are having the biggest financial problems Greece for example imports over 30% of all of its crude oil each month from Iran.

And terror and is betting on the fact that Brussels is going to have to -- given the problems in the EU zone before they do.

The problem I see with -- all of this is that if you take a look at the positions that have been established on both ends of the table there is no budge.

The Iranians are arguing they're not -- negotiate their nuclear program on told the west first -- the sanctions right and the west this saying.

There are not going to suspend the sanctions until number one.

-- Ron stops purifying.

Nuclear.

Uranium right secondly.

They move the purified uranium they currently have out of the country and third they open up that -- with a super secret installation at Florida -- outside of of the sacred city of com.

And these are three non starters as far as terror -- -- concern.

And Ken what's even more complicating all of this -- fact is -- an internal struggles going on for power in Iran from what I can understand is that correct.

Absolutely we have a situation here in which president Ahmadinejad.

And -- supreme religious leader.

Ayatollah how many.

Are now had not only clear odds but they're public odds it is so bad now that the religious leadership.

Is claiming that the president is involved in corruption.

And the president is claiming that the supreme religious leader son is involved in the corruption so there's absolutely.

No love lost between these two we had recent local elections in -- to give us some indication of what might be taking place with a national elections coming up of that later.

And -- in his John's interest were severely defeated all of them.

So we're seeing a change here in the political leadership.

During an intense economic crisis in Iran that's going to get worse what it is the west is banking on here.

Is that -- Ron will have no choice.

Other than to back down from their new -- -- program because of the economic problems at home this is brinksmanship diplomacy but it just might work.

-- we'll see but us thank you so much for joining us can -- professor at.

-- -- university can thank you very much for appreciate it.

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